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Tropical Storm Milton forms in Gulf of Mexico, eyes Florida


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Posted (edited)

MIAMI — An alarming change in the forecast now shows the potential for a dangerous hurricane to strike the west coast of Florida during the workweek with damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge and torrential rain.

The budding cyclone was designated Tropical Storm Milton on Saturday afternoon by the National Hurricane Center, but it's now expected to rapidly intensify into a hurricane by Monday and reach Florida on Wednesday.:(

We should be prepared to evacuate people?

Edited by docyabut2
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Posted (edited)

Milton is expected to hit as a CAT 2 but could possibly become a CAT 3.

NEW: Milton forms in Gulf of Mexico, forecast to hit Florida's Gulf Coast as Cat 2 hurricane (msn.com)

Rapid strengthening is expected as the system moves across the central and eastern part of the Gulf with a hurricane forming Monday or Tuesday before more deepening will take it to a Category 2 storm with estimated 110 mph winds ahead of a possible Wednesday landfall. Category 3 hurricanes start at 111 mph.

While NHC's intensity forecast tops out at a strong Category 2, some models are more bullish on the storm's future ferocity.

"It's worth noting that stronger scenarios are possible, especially if the system takes a more northerly track," said Michael Lowry, a meteorologist with South Florida ABC-TV affiliate Channel10 in a special briefing Saturday.

Edited by susieice
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Clearly rhe cabal of miscellaneous villainy (tm) has decided to stop people in Florida from voting for Trump as well (there are multiple videos on the web saying HAARP was used to decimate NC because of rhe large pro-Trump voter base there) 

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Screw you mama nature. 😤

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I have been through a couple hurricanes. The most intense I'd been through was category 3 or 4. Saw roofs ripped off by winds and a tornado (which blew my mind because it was the first hurricane I'd been in and the first tornado I'd ever seen all at once). But, let's hope it doesn't strengthen. Smaller hurricanes like cat 1 and 2 can be somewhat fun, actually. I have friends who've hosted 'hurricane parties' with lots of alcohol as the storms hit. Three sheets to the wind.

But, indeed hope this remains on the weaker side. My family in Florida just went through parts of Helene.

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This hurricane season has broken all the rules but it's getting active again now after a long lull. 

2024 hurricane season has broken all the rules, experts say | Hurricane Center | nola.com

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has felt like a rollercoaster that no one agreed to get on — with Hurricane Beryl's historically early formation, a peak-season lull that left scientists scratching their heads, and Hurricane Helene's devastating blow far inland in the Southeast U.S. 

With two months left in the season, which started on June 1 and ends Nov. 30, researchers are starting to get a better understanding of how this year compares to dire pre-season forecasts. While 2024 may not end up among the most active seasons in history as initially predicted, researchers say it's still likely to end with more activity than usual.

 

Hurricane Kirk is now a CAT 4 and heading to Europe. We've been told to expect dangerous riptides and high waves along the Jersey coast and he's 2,000 miles away. Europe has already been experiencing flooding as it's been raining for several weeks already. I hope everyone stays safe.

Powerful Hurricane Kirk on path to impact Europe as massive post-tropical cyclone (msn.com)

Parts of northwestern Europe are on alert for a significant storm system with origins in the tropical Atlantic.

Hurricane Kirk, the 11th named storm of the 2024 hurricane season, reached Category 4 storm status on Thursday. But it will eventually target locations such as the United Kingdom and France with heavy rainfall, rough seas and damaging wind gusts.

As of Oct. 3, 12 named storms had formed in 2024, including seven that reached hurricane status and three that strengthened into major hurricanes. 

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Posted (edited)

Its sad another hurricane could killed more people 💀

We should be prepared to evacuate MORE people?

Edited by docyabut2
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Posted (edited)

Our local ABC News has Milton as a CAT 3 when he makes landfall in Florida and possibly stronger. 

Tropical Storm Milton forms in Gulf of Mexico, forecast to hit Florida as hurricane - ABC News (go.com)

A separate system is already saturating Florida with 2 to 5 inches of rain this weekend, so by the time Milton reaches Florida, the flood threat will be increased substantially.

Five-day rain totals could reach 10 inches or more in Florida by the time Milton leaves the state.

Storm surge and wind damage could also be dangerous along Florida's west coast.

Edited by susieice
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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, docyabut2 said:

We should be prepared to evacuate the people of  Florida on Wednesday.?

FEMA is already there because of Helene. 

FEMA Urges People in Florida to Prepare Now Ahead of Tropical Storm Milton, Listen to Local Officials | FEMA.gov

People should be preparing to do what they need to now. But they have to heed the warnings.

AccuWeather: Florida Gulf Coast To Brace For Heavy Rain, Storm Surge, And Powerful Winds From Hurricane Milton (msn.com)

Tampa Free Press has him coming in as a CAT 3 now. 

Pasco County Closing West Side Comfort Stations Tonight Due To Tropical Storm Milton (msn.com)

Edited by susieice
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4 hours ago, Skulduggery said:

I have friends who've hosted 'hurricane parties' with lots of alcohol as the storms hit. Three sheets to the wind.

I remember a story about a hurricane party in Biloxi MS at an apartment complex during Camille in '69.  It got washed away and there were multiple deaths.  That said, I had one during the first half of Frederick in '79.  I remember becoming instantly sober when a tree fell on the house.

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Everybody in these storms tracks …..stay safe…..

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Milton is a hurricane now and expected to be a CAT 3 when he hits. It's expected to impact the Florida west coast sometime during the day Wednesday. These are from my local Philadelphia ABC news broadcast. Our meteorologist is saying that most storms don't directly impact from the west. They come from the south and turn in. This direct west to east track could significantly increase the surge potential.

462220492_1108058084023513_981455023113727319_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s600x600&_nc_cat=108&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=833d8c&_nc_ohc=AHukZL1MNigQ7kNvgGzB0IA&_nc_ht=scontent.fwbw1-1.fna&_nc_gid=AEAIRLrZAZ4-YLiN8xDTQub&oh=00_AYAG00iv_AZcTbJL8M34ZWt1RqTCzaNVvnQ6DCTQ1Bwvjg&oe=6708B4A1462318844_1108058087356846_2128108401893782043_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s600x600&_nc_cat=102&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=833d8c&_nc_ohc=JH-k5p2VBPUQ7kNvgENCz6E&_nc_ht=scontent.fwbw1-1.fna&_nc_gid=AEAIRLrZAZ4-YLiN8xDTQub&oh=00_AYAKJe9FUU2f2GMfL6ZAdSV5UnZnPrriCvz4Gzn8a-n77g&oe=6708CED2462318680_1108058134023508_7827660700190044215_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s600x600&_nc_cat=108&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=833d8c&_nc_ohc=ZftBDJqdZtcQ7kNvgHTW0xY&_nc_ht=scontent.fwbw1-1.fna&_nc_gid=AEAIRLrZAZ4-YLiN8xDTQub&oh=00_AYADFrJDyOF6Bn_JQVZAUXporhV8UK7xxLpHZbCgxruQMQ&oe=6708AF26462318388_1108058137356841_5920071688256655030_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s600x600&_nc_cat=107&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=833d8c&_nc_ohc=haYL8G_mrI8Q7kNvgHG7oDu&_nc_ht=scontent.fwbw1-1.fna&_nc_gid=AEAIRLrZAZ4-YLiN8xDTQub&oh=00_AYD4Gtw0sRnCO0PJDXKyxe65Y2-1V5a60-7MNm_sxkjoHQ&oe=6708CC6F

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Given the rapid development shown above, to a cat 3, its hard to imagine it will stop at that level for a significant period before landfall. ?

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4 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Given the rapid development shown above, to a cat 3, its hard to imagine it will stop at that level for a significant period before landfall. ?

Our meteorologist just posted an update. It will be a CAT 4 but they think he'll weaken some before making landfall. It will still be a powerful storm with devastating storm surge, destructive winds and flash flooding through Wednesday. I hope he loses some of his punch but it doesn't sound like it will be near enough. 

Are your weather broadcasts warning you about Hurricane Kirk? We're being told he's coming your way. He was a CAT 4 yesterday and will be a massive post-tropical cyclone when he's expected to reach the UK and France the end of next week. I'll post link here:   Tornado warning issued for south of UK as ex-Hurricane Kirk approaches (msn.com)

May be an image of map and text that says 'abc NEWS HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST PATH Cedar Key TaTpa 3 Naples 3 THU 2:00 PM THU2:00PMET ET 75 mph WED 2:00 PM ET 120 mph MON MON12:00PMCST 12:00 CST 125 mph TUE 12:00 PM TUE12:00PMCST CST 145 mph FRI 3:00 PM FRI3:00PMAT AT 65 mph'

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3 minutes ago, susieice said:

Our meteorologist just posted an update. It will be a CAT 4 but they think he'll weaken some before making landfall. It will still be a powerful storm with devastating storm surge, destructive winds and flash flooding through Wednesday. I hope he loses some of his punch but it doesn't sound like it will be near enough. 

Are your weather broadcasts warning you about Hurricane Kirk? We're being told he's coming your way. He was a CAT 4 yesterday and will be a massive post-tropical cyclone when he's expected to reach the UK and France the end of next week. I'll post link here:   Tornado warning issued for south of UK as ex-Hurricane Kirk approaches (msn.com)

May be an image of map and text that says 'abc NEWS HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST PATH Cedar Key TaTpa 3 Naples 3 THU 2:00 PM THU2:00PMET ET 75 mph WED 2:00 PM ET 120 mph MON MON12:00PMCST 12:00 CST 125 mph TUE 12:00 PM TUE12:00PMCST CST 145 mph FRI 3:00 PM FRI3:00PMAT AT 65 mph'

It looks like Kirk will go into Europe/France from what I can see.

It will cause more flooding for them but hopefully we will miss the brunt of it.

One to keep an eye on.

 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

It looks like Kirk will go into Europe/France from what I can see.

It will cause more flooding for them but hopefully we will miss the brunt of it.

One to keep an eye on.

 

I've been hearing there's been a lot of heavy rain and flooding in parts of the UK in recent weeks. I hope you miss out on the brunt of it also. Sending best wishes to the people in France. This is some crazy weather. 

Edited by susieice
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1 minute ago, susieice said:

I've been hearing there's been a lot of heavy rain and flooding in parts of the UK in recent weeks. I hope you miss out on the brunt of it also. Sending best wishes to the people in France. This is some crazy weather. 

We had a very wet spell about a week ago. Dry ground is now wet or saturated again.

Any significant rain will cause more flooding.

I am hoping this winter will be cold rather than warmer and wetter.

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Posted (edited)

Milton's wind speeds are now 2 mph under a CAT 5, which it will reach before it begins to weaken a little. Still being predicted to hit as a strong CAT 3.

Our noon news just said in a matter of hours he jumped from a CAT 2 to a CAT 5. A storm like this moving west to east hasn't been seen since the 1800's but they didn't give a specific date.

May be an image of map and text

Edited by susieice
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The meteorologist just said the last storm to move west to east like this was a tropical storm in 1892. They really don't know what kind of an effect this unusual path will have on Milton. They still say a very strong CAT 3, just below a CAT 4 when he hits.

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5 minutes ago, susieice said:

The meteorologist just said the last storm to move west to east like this was a tropical storm in 1892. They really don't know what kind of an effect this unusual path will have on Milton. They still say a very strong CAT 3, just below a CAT 4 when he hits.

I can see the storm losing a little juice as it swipes the Yucatan peninsula. Also, I suppose the water shallows quite a bit coming up on the Florida peninsula. I assume that contributes to the predicred reduction in strength? Water is obviously a warm bathtub out in the Gulf.

I wonder how they got storm tracks from 1892. Presumably just the reports of a big storm in the western Gulf and then a big storm hitting Florida?

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12 minutes ago, Doc Socks Junior said:

I can see the storm losing a little juice as it swipes the Yucatan peninsula. Also, I suppose the water shallows quite a bit coming up on the Florida peninsula. I assume that contributes to the predicred reduction in strength? Water is obviously a warm bathtub out in the Gulf.

I wonder how they got storm tracks from 1892. Presumably just the reports of a big storm in the western Gulf and then a big storm hitting Florida?

Here's their recent report posted in the website. It's a little long but full of info. It doesn't say where the info about the 1892 storm came from but Florida is beginning mass evacuations.

Hurricane Milton explodes into Category 5 storm in Gulf, expected to slightly weaken as it approaches Florida | LIVE RADAR - 6abc Philadelphia

Hurricane Milton has exploded into a Category 5 storm within just hours, with max winds of 160 mph.

 

The storm is forecast to make landfall Wednesday night or early Thursday morning as a Category 3 hurricane. Landfall is expected anywhere between just north of Tampa to south of Sarasota.

Within hours on Monday, Milton strengthened from a Category 1 to a Category 5.

The state has begun its largest evacuation effort since 2017 with 51 out of Florida's 67 counties are under a state of emergency as the state braces for Hurricane Milton, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday.

While forecast models vary widely, the most likely path suggests Milton could make landfall Wednesday in the Tampa Bay area and remain a hurricane as it moves across central Florida into the Atlantic Ocean.

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