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To deter a war over Taiwan, threaten Chinese interests far from it


OverSword

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As wars rage across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Beijing is once again rattling its saber at Taiwan. In doing so, it has drawn attention back to East Asia with a reminder that the world is at risk of an even more destructive war than those it is already facing. A battle over Taiwan would be disastrous for all sides. To prevent one, the U.S. must ensure that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) also views the cost of a conflict as unacceptably high.

The risk that Beijing attempts to forcefully “reunify” Taiwan with mainland China increases significantly if it becomes confident that three conditions have been satisfied. The first is that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has established sufficient local military superiority to win a fight with the U.S. and its allies in the region surrounding Taiwan. The second is that China will be able to contain the conflict to their chosen theater. Finally, that the economic fallout will be minimal.

 

Interesting article.  Read the rest here.

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And what if the US decides it does not care what happens to Taiwan?  Maybe we will admire Xi too much to stand in his way.

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Well-reasoned piece.  Hopefully, we will soon have a leader who can hold China a bit more accountable.  A weak, feckless America for another 4 years seems almost guaranteed to cause widespread adventurism by our enemies.  Thucydides' Trap is a real thing and China's leaders, while patient, are also human and prone to mistakes.

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3 hours ago, OverSword said:

Interesting article

Interesting, yes, but China could take Taiwan without having to invade it. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China could potentially use “gray zone” tactics – actions just below what might be considered acts of war. China's Coast Guard, maritime militia and various police and maritime safety agencies, for example, could initiate a full or partial quarantine of Taiwan, possibly cutting off access to its ports and stopping vital supplies like energy from reaching the island.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/21/china/china-taiwan-quarantine-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

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We won't have a leader who will hold China more accountable. One admires how handsome and brilliant Xi is and how admirable for ruling 1.5 billion people with an iron fist. In his previous encounter with China, they never fulfilled their agreement to buy more US Ag products.  We bailed out our own farmers for what, 11 billion dollars and did nothing to hold China accountable.  That administration  said of Taiwan : https://www.cfr.org/blog/taiwans-trump-conundrum

Last summer, in an interview on Fox News, Trump stated, “Taiwan did take all of our chip business…we should have stopped them. We should have taxed them. We should have tariffed them.” In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek published this week, Trump repeated the claim that Taiwan took the United States’ semiconductor manufacturing industry and called for it to “pay us for defense,” 

The other possible president may voice support, but action is less certain.

To the article's point the US has ceded its influence across the world to China. Europe knows it may not be able to depend on us.  They will have to make their  own accommodations with China   Africa is the frontier for developing vital resources, we let China have free rein there.  Even in Mexico, China is negotiating to help build a port.  China is playing a financial game.  They want to be the biggest economy and replace the US as the biggest power in the world. No doubt China is encouraging our isolationist desires. They don't have to confront us as a military power, they just have to reinforce the idea we don't want to get involved in a war.  It won't be hard to convince American citizens and Congress that foreign aid is ripping us off US taxpayers. We may not invest and spread our influence abroad.

Our economy does not need to diminish in order for China's continued influence to surpass us.  Elon Musk's biggest plant and largest customer base comes out of China.  It is the same for other global corporations.  The world isn't beating a path to our door anymore. We can't just sit here and expect past growth to continue.  We don't need military to confront China head on when commerce could do it nicely. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

One admires how handsome and brilliant Xi is and how admirable for ruling 1.5 billion people with an iron fist.

Trump broke you, didn't he?  ;)   Your party talks this stuff about him being a dictator but you only come across sounding like fools.  We actually HAVE evidence of how he'd govern and he never did a single thing he's being accused of, in advance.  If he wins, it's going to be amusing to watch the heads explode.  I might even get a chuckle out of watching cities burn, so long as they're all blue.  When people willingly choose to support the kind of thuggery the Dems engage in, they deserve the consequences of their actions.  It's only fair.

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3 hours ago, and-then said:

Trump broke you, didn't he?  ;)   Your party talks this stuff about him being a dictator but you only come across sounding like fools.  We actually HAVE evidence of how he'd govern and he never did a single thing he's being accused of, in advance.  If he wins, it's going to be amusing to watch the heads explode.  I might even get a chuckle out of watching cities burn, so long as they're all blue.  When people willingly choose to support the kind of thuggery the Dems engage in, they deserve the consequences of their actions.  It's only fair.

That's kind of deflection isn't it?   We were talking about Trump holding China accountable, engaging in world diplomacy, and counteracting China's growing influence.

You don't even live in a city, why do you want to burn them down?

But to answer your question, the man violates ALL of the Christian principles  I grew up with.  I don't like him but he didn't break me. I try pretty hard to understand why you like him so much, you are a good person so there must be a reason, but I don't get it.

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52 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

You don't even live in a city, why do you want to burn them down?

If they burn, it won't be me causing it now will it?  If you hadn't noticed by now, a huge number of Americans outside the blue states think that those Americans have been responsible for attempting to spread degrading and insane filth all over the rest of the country.  They've also shown themselves to be antiAmerican to the point of openly working to bring this nation to its knees.  I'd say they deserve whatever hell they bring on themselves.  Being a Christian does not require being suicidal nor accepting the destruction of my country by other Americans.  

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1 hour ago, and-then said:

Being a Christian does not require being suicidal nor accepting the destruction of my country by other Americans.  

Well at least we agree on this.

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