L.A.T.1961 Posted Wednesday at 09:20 PM #1 Share Posted Wednesday at 09:20 PM (edited) UK government spending to rise by 70 bln pounds over next 5 years, says OBR The OBR said two thirds of the increase would go on day-to-day spending, with one third allocated to capital spending. "As a result, the size of the state is forecast to settle at 44 per cent of GDP by the end of the decade, almost 5 percentage points higher than before the pandemic," the OBR said in its Economic and Fiscal Outlook, which was published alongside the budget. Reeves announced a string of tax increases to meet her new rule for day-to-day spending to be in balance by 2030. The rate of social security contributions paid by employers will rise by 1.2 percentage points to 15% from April, and a threshold at which firms start paying it will fall, generating an extra 25 billion pounds a year in five years' time. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-new-finance-minister-reeves-lines-up-tax-hikes-borrowing-first-budget-2024-10-29/ The problem I see is where is the bogey man hiding? Tax increases will reach a point where they cause a fundamental change to the economy. People who are already happy to work from home or reduce their hours will decide working or, more importantly, running a business is a fruitless enterprise and decide to jack it in. That point is out there in the economic either somewhere but the exact location is unknown. Labour have moved us in that direction with a big step today, if they have overstepped the mark recovering the situation will need an even bigger U turn than the changes made today and the UK will be in a worse place to make those changes. Edited Wednesday at 09:21 PM by L.A.T.1961 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pellinore Posted Wednesday at 10:19 PM #2 Share Posted Wednesday at 10:19 PM 55 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said: The problem I see is where is the bogey man hiding? Tax increases will reach a point where they cause a fundamental change to the economy. Brexit caused a fundamental change to our economy, one which we will never recover from (it also caused a huge, huge increase in permanent immigration which will effect the demographics of the UK forever), yet you support that. This is just a govt budget in their first term- it can be reversed, unlike the damage Brexit has caused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duke Wellington Posted Thursday at 02:47 AM #3 Share Posted Thursday at 02:47 AM 5 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said: UK government spending to rise by 70 bln pounds over next 5 years, says OBR The OBR said two thirds of the increase would go on day-to-day spending, with one third allocated to capital spending. "As a result, the size of the state is forecast to settle at 44 per cent of GDP by the end of the decade, almost 5 percentage points higher than before the pandemic," the OBR said in its Economic and Fiscal Outlook, which was published alongside the budget. Reeves announced a string of tax increases to meet her new rule for day-to-day spending to be in balance by 2030. The rate of social security contributions paid by employers will rise by 1.2 percentage points to 15% from April, and a threshold at which firms start paying it will fall, generating an extra 25 billion pounds a year in five years' time. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-new-finance-minister-reeves-lines-up-tax-hikes-borrowing-first-budget-2024-10-29/ The problem I see is where is the bogey man hiding? Tax increases will reach a point where they cause a fundamental change to the economy. People who are already happy to work from home or reduce their hours will decide working or, more importantly, running a business is a fruitless enterprise and decide to jack it in. That point is out there in the economic either somewhere but the exact location is unknown. Labour have moved us in that direction with a big step today, if they have overstepped the mark recovering the situation will need an even bigger U turn than the changes made today and the UK will be in a worse place to make those changes. Higher employer NICs, higher minimum wage, higher Capital gains tax, and they are being hit to put more more money into the NHS and education. Its going to increase private sector unemployment, and reduce profits for businesses and the wealthy. This is Communism turning the middle class into working class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsnotoutthere Posted Thursday at 11:11 AM #4 Share Posted Thursday at 11:11 AM Hey guys, quit moaning.....somebody has got to fund Zelensky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+OverSword Posted Thursday at 03:32 PM #5 Share Posted Thursday at 03:32 PM Is it 40 billion pounds in new spending? Where is your government going to get that money England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Setton Posted Thursday at 04:06 PM #6 Share Posted Thursday at 04:06 PM 33 minutes ago, OverSword said: Is it 40 billion pounds in new spending? Where is your government going to get that money England? They've raised an additional £40bn, mainly through tax changes to businesses instead of working people. More than half of that is needed just to plug the gap the last government left in its dishonest budget. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+OverSword Posted Thursday at 04:25 PM #7 Share Posted Thursday at 04:25 PM 15 minutes ago, Setton said: They've raised an additional £40bn, mainly through tax changes to businesses instead of working people. More than half of that is needed just to plug the gap the last government left in its dishonest budget. Great plan. When you force business profits down by raising their taxes how do you suppose they make up that short fall? Their work and products raise in price. Who do you think pays for the more expensive goods and services? You just got taxed not the businesses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Setton Posted Thursday at 04:29 PM #8 Share Posted Thursday at 04:29 PM 2 minutes ago, OverSword said: Great plan. When you force business profits down by raising their taxes how do you suppose they make up that short fall? Their work and products raise in price. Who do you think pays for the more expensive goods and services? You just got taxed not the businesses. And it'll balance out in a new equilibrium. Personally, I'd rather have one fewer pints on a night out and functioning public services. Guess different people have different priorities. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+OverSword Posted Thursday at 04:41 PM #9 Share Posted Thursday at 04:41 PM 10 minutes ago, Setton said: And it'll balance out in a new equilibrium. Personally, I'd rather have one fewer pints on a night out and functioning public services. Guess different people have different priorities. Personally I'd rather the government was not in the business of increasing my cost of living as I know damned well from experience equivalent rise in wages will be far behind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Setton Posted Thursday at 04:45 PM #10 Share Posted Thursday at 04:45 PM (edited) 3 minutes ago, OverSword said: Personally I'd rather the government was not in the business of increasing my cost of living as I know damned well from experience equivalent rise in wages will be far behind. So what do you suggest as the alternative to plug the tens of billions in spending the last government lied about? Also, private sector wages have shot up recently, while the last government stifled public sector ones for ideological reasons. Nothing wrong with a bit of balance there. Edited Thursday at 04:45 PM by Setton 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+OverSword Posted Thursday at 04:55 PM #11 Share Posted Thursday at 04:55 PM 6 minutes ago, Setton said: So what do you suggest as the alternative to plug the tens of billions in spending the last government lied about? Also, private sector wages have shot up recently, while the last government stifled public sector ones for ideological reasons. Nothing wrong with a bit of balance there. You were talking this up because business and not working people were paying . No. You're paying. I'm glad for you that you are happy about lowering your standard of living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Setton Posted Thursday at 04:58 PM #12 Share Posted Thursday at 04:58 PM 1 minute ago, OverSword said: You were talking this up because business and not working people were paying . No. You're paying. I'm glad for you that you are happy about lowering your standard of living. I'll pay some of it. And businesses will pay some of it. I'd rather that than I pay all of it Again, I see a broken health service as a lower standard of living than one fewer pints. Again, different priorities obviously.... And besides, public sector and not easily replaceable. My standard of living is just fine under this budget 😉 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+OverSword Posted Thursday at 05:01 PM #13 Share Posted Thursday at 05:01 PM Just now, Setton said: I'll pay some of it. And businesses will pay some of it. No. Business' fire the people at the top when profits are down. Business' will raise their prices to prevent that. You will pay for all of it. And when they have to increase wages to their employees for the inevitable after the fact cost of living increase you will pay for that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Setton Posted Thursday at 05:17 PM #14 Share Posted Thursday at 05:17 PM 15 minutes ago, OverSword said: No. Business' fire the people at the top when profits are down. Business' will raise their prices to prevent that. You will pay for all of it. And when they have to increase wages to their employees for the inevitable after the fact cost of living increase you will pay for that as well. 31 minutes ago, Setton said: So what do you suggest as the alternative to plug the tens of billions in spending the last government lied about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+OverSword Posted Thursday at 05:20 PM #15 Share Posted Thursday at 05:20 PM 1 minute ago, Setton said: So what do you suggest as the alternative to plug the tens of billions in spending the last government lied about? Nothing you would agree with since you think this is a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Setton Posted Thursday at 06:08 PM #16 Share Posted Thursday at 06:08 PM 47 minutes ago, OverSword said: Nothing you would agree with since you think this is a good idea. Based on your contributions so far, nothing at all. Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.A.T.1961 Posted Thursday at 06:14 PM Author #17 Share Posted Thursday at 06:14 PM This budget bears no resemblance to Labours pre election manifesto. Why is that when we were told to expect honesty and transparency? The markets being told one thing and then seeing what happened yesterday will not take them at face value again. Even Beff is gobsmacked, a labour fan girl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Setton Posted Thursday at 06:20 PM #18 Share Posted Thursday at 06:20 PM 5 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said: This budget bears no resemblance to Labours pre election manifesto. Why is that when we were told to expect honesty and transparency? The markets being told one thing and then seeing what happened yesterday will not take them at face value again. Even Beff is gobsmacked, a labour fan girl. Again, 22bn the Tories lied about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.A.T.1961 Posted Thursday at 06:24 PM Author #19 Share Posted Thursday at 06:24 PM Small business give their verdict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+OverSword Posted Thursday at 06:31 PM #20 Share Posted Thursday at 06:31 PM (edited) 49 minutes ago, Setton said: Based on your contributions so far, nothing at all. Shocker. I've contributed to this subject in dozens of threads for dozens of years. Somehow the writings and lectures of Nobel Laureates, the continual failure of socialist economies and plain common sense have never been enough to convince you in the past, so have fun paying taxes to a government of behalf of big corporations while small businesses are forced to close their doors. You say you are fine with it so who am I to argue with you over your own feelings? Feel however you want. What you will be feeling is the pinch at the cash register ultimately, but your fine with that so... Edited Thursday at 06:58 PM by OverSword 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.A.T.1961 Posted Thursday at 06:35 PM Author #21 Share Posted Thursday at 06:35 PM 8 minutes ago, Setton said: Again, 22bn the Tories lied about. The OBR could not find 22 billion. So someone is lying about that figure and as it was used by Labour, and no one else, the finger is pointing at them. "Speaking to Sky News on Wednesday afternoon, Mr Hughes (OBR) said that “nothing in our review was a legitimization of that £22billion”. Mr Sunak accused the Chancellor of attempting to “politicise” the independent watchdog. Responding to the Budget in the Commons on Wednesday afternoon, he said that “the OBR has in fact declined to back up her claims of a fictional £22 billion black hole. “It actually appears nowhere in their report." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pellinore Posted Thursday at 10:04 PM #22 Share Posted Thursday at 10:04 PM 3 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said: Small business give their verdict. Many small businesses closed because of Brexit, farmers and fishing have been hit hard. This budget may grow the economy in the long term, Brexit will always be a drag anchor on the UK economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pellinore Posted Thursday at 10:14 PM #23 Share Posted Thursday at 10:14 PM (edited) 3 hours ago, OverSword said: I've contributed to this subject in dozens of threads for dozens of years. Somehow the writings and lectures of Nobel Laureates, the continual failure of socialist economies and plain common sense have never been enough to convince you in the past, so have fun paying taxes to a government of behalf of big corporations while small businesses are forced to close their doors. You say you are fine with it so who am I to argue with you over your own feelings? Feel however you want. What you will be feeling is the pinch at the cash register ultimately, but your fine with that so... I often agree with you OS (as I enjoy a bit of debate and like to act as a fascist as a bit of fun) but the bit about Laureates is factually wrong as the only one who has commented on Tory policy has rubbished it: Economist who called Brexit ‘self-destructive’ wins Nobel Prize And one thing I have learned about @Setton is that he is educated, logical and has a sense of morality and doesn't just argue over his own feelings, unlike many of us who just like to vent. Edited Thursday at 10:15 PM by pellinore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+OverSword Posted Thursday at 10:20 PM #24 Share Posted Thursday at 10:20 PM 3 minutes ago, pellinore said: I often agree with you OS (as I enjoy a bit of debate and like to act as a fascist as a bit of fun) but the bit about Laureates is factually wrong as the only one who has commented on Tory policy has rubbished it: Economist who called Brexit ‘self-destructive’ wins Nobel Prize And one thing I have learned about @Setton is that he is educated, logical and has a sense of morality and doesn't just argue over his own feelings, unlike many of us who just like to vent. That is not the Laureate I was speaking of. I also wasn't talking about Tory or Labour policy per se' but just organic free market capitalism. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duke Wellington Posted Thursday at 11:09 PM #25 Share Posted Thursday at 11:09 PM I said the moment he got elected that he wouldn`t be PM at the next election, and that Labour would also loose that election. Putting aside the scandals because all governments have them, then what in Gods name is the Chancellor doing to the economy? Tax more, spend more, and its coming from businesses and the wealthy. Worse, the spend more isn`t even going on boosting demand in the private sector. Its primarily going to the NHS and schools, inefficient state employees! The markets have reacted negatively too it, but then again they represent the private sector. GBP has had a sharp dip vs USD and the Euro. There is Friday to go yet as businesses across the country and investors figure out what it means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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