Zelensky: I’ll give up Ukrainian territory to Russia to achieve peace

[WVK]

The Ukrainian president said his country could give up land temporarily in exchange for a “Nato umbrella” over the territory Ukraine still holds. He added that after a ceasefire was agreed, Kyiv could “diplomatically” negotiate the return of the territory in the east that is currently under Russian control.

“If we want to stop the hot stage of the war, we should take under [the] Nato umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control,” Zelensky said in an interview with Sky 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/29/zelensky-russia-war-territory-ukraine/

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

So basically the deal that would have ended the war three years ago? 
the one that BoJo “went to support” and mysteriously was rejected by Vloddy Z after meeting him?

[Setton]

22 minutes ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

So basically the deal that would have ended the war three years ago? 
the one that BoJo “went to support” and mysteriously was rejected by Vloddy Z after meeting him?

No. Russia has always said NATO protection for Ukraine is a red line.

[DarkHunter]

4 hours ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

So basically the deal that would have ended the war three years ago? 
the one that BoJo “went to support” and mysteriously was rejected by Vloddy Z after meeting him?

It's nothing compared to that deal.

What Zelensky has said is that Ukraine would consider accepting a ceasefire at the current frontlines to settle territory disputes with Russia politically in exchange for immediate NATO membership.

The Russian deal from approximately 3 years ago involved Ukraine cededing control of Crimea and the entire Donbas region to Russia, that the Russian military would hold their current positions at that time in Ukraine till a full diplomatic solution could be reached while Ukranian units would return to the military bases they were based in, that Ukraine would limit its entire military to only 50,000 total personnel, that Ukraine would pay for all damages that occured in Crimea and the Donbas region, that Ukraine would remove/change laws that hurt Russian interests, that the Ukranian Orthodox Church would return to being under the authority of the Russian Orthodox Church, that Ukraine would get security guarantees from America, UK, and Russia (not sure if other countries were included but I remember those three) but that any single member of the security guarantees could veto the actions taken by other members part of the security guarantees in matters involving Ukraine's security, that Russia would have a say in what weapons systems that the Ukranian military could field, and that Ukraine could never join NATO.  The deal Russia offered in 2022 was basically terms of surrender for Ukraine and not a ceasefire agreement or peace treaty.

The two are not comparable in any reasonable way.

Edited December 1, 2024 by DarkHunter

[fred_mc]

There's no way Putin would agree to those terms.

[Essan]

What is good is that both Putin and Zelensky have in recent days intimated that they want a solution to this idiocy.   

[jmccr8]

3 hours ago, Essan said:

What is good is that both Putin and Zelensky have in recent days intimated that they want a solution to this idiocy.   

HI Essan

Given that Putin has increased the military budget to145 billion does not seem like he is ready to take peace seriously and just a stall ploy to rebuild

[Tatetopa]

20 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

HI Essan

Given that Putin has increased the military budget to145 billion does not seem like he is ready to take peace seriously and just a stall ploy to rebuild

He may be thinking of that, but is it only a dream?  The ruble is collapsing, banks in Russia are charging 21% interest, inflation is going up, jobs are going unfilled. Putin has taken all the wealth of Russia, and a good portion of the younger generation to glorify himself and left the Russian people with few resources and a crumbling nation. Russia is far poorer than it was 3 years ago, and has used up cash reserves to boot.   North Koreans seem ineffective as troops and cost Putin money.  It is what authoritarians do, trust only themselves, take no advice, care about nobody but themselves.  Some called him a genius for invading Ukraine. Maybe a tip there for all potential authoritarians.

 

[Gromdor]

I couldn't read the paywall version linked, but the version I saw said that Article 5 wouldn't apply to the battlezones if he joined NATO which is a completely different narrative than the topic seems to hint at.  Basically, if he joins NATO then we wouldn't have to join in for any of the active battlegrounds, but the uninvaded stuff would be protected by the treaty.  He doesn't seem to be giving up on any of it.

[jmccr8]

15 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

He may be thinking of that, but is it only a dream?  The ruble is collapsing, banks in Russia are charging 21% interest, inflation is going up, jobs are going unfilled. Putin has taken all the wealth of Russia, and a good portion of the younger generation to glorify himself and left the Russian people with few resources and a crumbling nation. Russia is far poorer than it was 3 years ago, and has used up cash reserves to boot.   North Koreans seem ineffective as troops and cost Putin money.  It is what authoritarians do, trust only themselves, take no advice, care about nobody but themselves.  Some called him a genius for invading Ukraine. Maybe a tip there for all potential authoritarians.

 

HI Tate 

What you say is true but do not think Putin cares about anything other than his obsession. He will just divert more money from infrastructure at the cost of his people's expense 

[jmccr8]

17 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

HI Tate 

What you say is true but do not think Putin cares about anything other than his obsession. He will just divert more money from infrastructure at the cost of his people's expense 

HI Tate

With Russia's plunging ruble it makes me wonder about the aspirations of BRIC especially if Iran loses it's oil production and shipping capabilities as several of the other countries especially in S. America that are not financially stable. 

[Tatetopa]

4 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

HI Tate 

What you say is true but do not think Putin cares about anything other than his obsession. He will just divert more money from infrastructure at the cost of his people's expense 

I totally agree.  But reality will bite.  I doubt Putin could count on the army to support him in  a domestic disturbance. In fact, they may turn against him. Hungry people grow impatient and desperate, not good for Putin. You remember those pictures of steam heat failures in Russian cities last winter?  Lines may have been patched but not replaced.  The independent republics like Chechnya seem to be growing restless.  There were not available troops to send to help out Assad in Syria.  Meanwhile, China has already redrawn the maps showing China in possession of contested territory in Siberia.   China has  a lot to gain from Russian decline.  Vladivostok was once a Chinese port city, it may be again.

To borrow a line from Game of Thrones,  Winter is Coming.

[Gromdor]

Just now, jmccr8 said:

HI Tate

With Russia's plunging ruble it makes me wonder about the aspirations of BRIC especially if Iran loses it's oil production and shipping capabilities as several of the other countries especially in S. America that are not financially stable. 

Regarding that- I saw this https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/30/politics/trump-brics-currency-tariff/index.html

this: https://asiatimes.com/2024/11/brics-nations-determined-to-trade-in-their-own-currencies/

and this:https://news.bitcoin.com/putin-signs-law-declaring-crypto-as-property-in-russia/

So my take is that BRIC countries want their own currency to avoid sanctions, get out from under the US influence, add value/grow their own currency, etc. (among other things). But because of the variety of currencies, I am beginning to wonder if they are going the crypto currency route to achieve that goal and achieve commonality.  Using crypto that is tethered to say the dollar as the basis. We know Iran and other ountries (Even Hamas) use crypto for this: https://www.mei.edu/publications/iran-and-cryptocurrency-opportunities-and-obstacles-regime

I think we are seeing an evolution in currency to a digital and cashless form and this time around people are embracing it.  

[jmccr8]

2 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

I totally agree.  But reality will bite.  I doubt Putin could count on the army to support him in  a domestic disturbance. In fact, they may turn against him. Hungry people grow impatient and desperate, not good for Putin. You remember those pictures of steam heat failures in Russian cities last winter?  Lines may have been patched but not replaced.  The independent republics like Chechnya seem to be growing restless.  There were not available troops to send to help out Assad in Syria.  Meanwhile, China has already redrawn the maps showing China in possession of contested territory in Siberia.   China has  a lot to gain from Russian decline.  Vladivostok was once a Chinese port city, it may be again.

To borrow a line from Game of Thrones,  Winter is Coming.

HI Tate

Yes I agree and have said since the start of this conflict that Russia would revolt against Putin if it had the opportunity. There are many oppressed ethnic groups that comprise Russia that have been involved in some of the incidents that have occurred and are likely waiting for Russia to be so financially exhausted to take full out protest 

[Tatetopa]

3 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

HI Tate

With Russia's plunging ruble it makes me wonder about the aspirations of BRIC especially if Iran loses it's oil production and shipping capabilities as several of the other countries especially in S. America that are not financially stable. 

Yeah, BRIC was a response to US world domination.  China is the only economy of that group not in serious trouble.  They don't seem to be able to float an alternative to the dollar at all.  They all trade with the US and dollars are still desirable in their home countries.

One indication of them being weak is that a bully has seen their weakness and threatened them with tariffs if they try things they cannot possibly do.  Then he will claim a personal victory as a tough guy and national savior.

[Gromdor]

2 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

Yeah, BRIC was a response to US world domination.  China is the only economy of that group not in serious trouble.  They don't seem to be able to float an alternative to the dollar at all.  They all trade with the US and dollars are still desirable in their home countries.

One indication of them being weak is that a bully has seen their weakness and threatened them with tariffs if they try things they cannot possibly do.  Then he will claim a personal victory as a tough guy and national savior.

Eh, Brazil and India aren't doing too bad.  I know Brazil is used to periods of high inflation so what happened after Covid wasn't that big of a deal for them.  

And India had it's slowest growth this quarter: https://www.ft.com/content/05a53fa3-bc63-4238-81e3-8688f0464f23#post-4c7edc01-11ac-4568-a409-15f6f4cd9531  A measely 2.2% (that's sarcasm btw. That is still a good positive rate)

I'm too lazy to check up on the other countries- I assume Russia and Iran are doing bad.

[jmccr8]

7 minutes ago, Gromdor said:

Regarding that- I saw this https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/30/politics/trump-brics-currency-tariff/index.html

this: https://asiatimes.com/2024/11/brics-nations-determined-to-trade-in-their-own-currencies/

and this:https://news.bitcoin.com/putin-signs-law-declaring-crypto-as-property-in-russia/

So my take is that BRIC countries want their own currency to avoid sanctions, get out from under the US influence, add value/grow their own currency, etc. (among other things). But because of the variety of currencies, I am beginning to wonder if they are going the crypto currency route to achieve that goal and achieve commonality.  Using crypto that is tethered to say the dollar as the basis. We know Iran and other ountries (Even Hamas) use crypto for this: https://www.mei.edu/publications/iran-and-cryptocurrency-opportunities-and-obstacles-regime

I think we are seeing an evolution in currency to a digital and cashless form and this time around people are embracing it.  

HI Gromdor

Thanks for sharing but if everything goes crypto then there really won't be 2 competing systems would there? 

[Gromdor]

9 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

HI Gromdor

Thanks for sharing but if everything goes crypto then there really won't be 2 competing systems would there? 

I think crypto will just be the link used in lieu of the dollar.  They will still use their currency, but won't be beholden to the US dollar with the controls on it's flow through the system (which we control).  

Right now the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, but for them to use it, they subject themselves to our banking system- with all of its controls. This has it's pros and cons.  The pros are they can stabilize their own currency and manipulate it's value against their own currency for trade benefit.  The cons are the US can sanction them and freeze their own money, interfere in it's flow, or just outright seize it. Crypto, though in it's infancy, can act as this currency instead without the government control- particularly the "stable coins" which are designed to keep a set value (a single dollar is common right now).

So now we have Mr. Tariff man. If he is going to shut off access or increase the cost of the market access then using the dollar has less value on the trade side.  They might even dump their cash reserves in the US dollar of which they have trillions.  Crypto would allow them to convert their money and do transactions with each other (and even Americans) outside of US government control.  

Now what happens is all speculation for me because what people say and what they do are different, but this is the trend I am seeing.  

[jmccr8]

2 minutes ago, Gromdor said:

I think crypto will just be the link used in lieu of the dollar.  They will still use their currency, but won't be beholden to the US dollar with the controls on it's flow through the system (which we control).  

Right now the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, but for them to use it, they subject themselves to our banking system- with all of its controls. This has it's pros and cons.  The pros are they can stabilize their own currency and manipulate it's value against their own currency for trade benefit.  The cons are the US can sanction them and freeze their own money, interfere in it's flow, or just outright seize it. Crypto, though in it's infancy, can act as this currency instead without the government control- particularly the "stable coins" which are designed to keep a set value (a single dollar is common right now).

So now we have Mr. Tariff man. If he is going to shut off access or increase the cost of the market access then using the dollar has less value on the trade side.  They might even dump their cash reserves in the US dollar of which they have trillions.  Crypto would allow them to convert their money and do transactions with each other (and even Americans) outside of US government control.  

Now what happens is all speculation for me because what people say and what they do are different, but this is the trend I am seeing.  

HI Gromdor

Thanks for taking the time to explain that to me as I really don't follow international finance. Personally I would like to see a standard monetary system globally that ensured the same standard of living cost and wages. I know that would affect the cheap labor production incentives that foreign country businesses like to pursue for profit but might eliminate other concerns like illegal immigration 

[Gromdor]

1 minute ago, jmccr8 said:

HI Gromdor

Thanks for taking the time to explain that to me as I really don't follow international finance. Personally I would like to see a standard monetary system globally that ensured the same standard of living cost and wages. I know that would affect the cheap labor production incentives that foreign country businesses like to pursue for profit but might eliminate other concerns like illegal immigration 

Prices are still regional even with the same currency in the US and other places. 

Gas here in Iowa is $2.73 or so https://www.kwwl.com/news/gas-prices-in-iowa-fall-to-2-73-statewide-average-per-gallon/article_1f456436-a5c9-11ef-b8a9-3b1eb4f1471b.html and $4.25 or so in California for instance: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/california-gas-prices-fell-from-last-week-see-how-much-here/ar-AA1v1nTI?ocid=BingNewsSerp

I remember pistachios being 37 cents for a 1lb bag in Saudi Arabia during the Gulf War and something like $5 a bag here in the states (both bought with USD.) 

Labor is the perfect example of cost difference for the same currency-  hiring a factory worker here in the US for a company probably costs $50/hr or more while the same company can hire someone in say El Salvador for $5/hr.  

It's the big strength of global companies- the ability to get the resources and costs at the best value in the world and then sell it where it sells for the most.  

I have been to many countries in my life and I don't recall a single one that didn't take the dollar or have an easy way to exchange it.  That is the power it has right now as the global reserve currency. 

 

[jmccr8]

5 minutes ago, Gromdor said:

Prices are still regional even with the same currency in the US and other places. 

Gas here in Iowa is $2.73 or so https://www.kwwl.com/news/gas-prices-in-iowa-fall-to-2-73-statewide-average-per-gallon/article_1f456436-a5c9-11ef-b8a9-3b1eb4f1471b.html and $4.25 or so in California for instance: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/california-gas-prices-fell-from-last-week-see-how-much-here/ar-AA1v1nTI?ocid=BingNewsSerp

I remember pistachios being 37 cents for a 1lb bag in Saudi Arabia during the Gulf War and something like $5 a bag here in the states (both bought with USD.) 

Labor is the perfect example of cost difference for the same currency-  hiring a factory worker here in the US for a company probably costs $50/hr or more while the same company can hire someone in say El Salvador for $5/hr.  

It's the big strength of global companies- the ability to get the resources and costs at the best value in the world and then sell it where it sells for the most.  

I have been to many countries in my life and I don't recall a single one that didn't take the dollar or have an easy way to exchange it.  That is the power it has right now as the global reserve currency. 

 

HI Gromdor. 

Yes what you say is true but countries that sell drugs that are BRICS members will still be getting US dollars so it will be a dual monetary system. 

[Gromdor]

4 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

HI Gromdor. 

Yes what you say is true but countries that sell drugs that are BRICS members will still be getting US dollars so it will be a dual monetary system. 

That's true.  I mentioned before that my wife owns a multinational GPS tracking company- she gets paid in dollars for some clients and the local currency for others.  I depends on the contract they signed, but she and the in-laws use whatever is most advantageous at the time (as do the clients).  

She is Brazilian/Italian and she deals with China, the US, European countries, Israel, Paraguay, etc.   So a few BRIC countries.  Let's pretend Biden or Trump gets mad at one of our clients-  they could sanction them and freeze the dollars being used in the banking system.  That would be annoying.  But we could use a different currency system (that doesn't exist right now, but the BRIC countries want to create) or something like crypto to switch the currencies into, transfer, and then transfer back to US dollars or whatever.  

I don't think BRICs wants to completely get rid of the dollar standard, but instead create something that replaces it and knocks the dollar down into just being another currency.

[Ajay0]

11 hours ago, Gromdor said:

And India had it's slowest growth this quarter: https://www.ft.com/content/05a53fa3-bc63-4238-81e3-8688f0464f23#post-4c7edc01-11ac-4568-a409-15f6f4cd9531  A measely 2.2% (that's sarcasm btw. That is still a good positive rate)

The Indian growth rate this quarter is at 5.4 % down from the usual 7-8 % .  It is the Indian manufacturing sector that grew at a sluggist 2.2 % compared to the 7 % growth rate in the previous quarter.