A newly discovered asteroid has a slim chance of hitting Earth in 2032

[docyabut2]

https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/31/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-earth-impact-chance/index.html

[Abramelin]

17 minutes ago, docyabut2 said:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/31/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-earth-impact-chance/index.html

[Alchopwn]

1.2% is actually pretty high.

[Portre]

It will be too late.

Edited February 3 by Portre

[Cho Jinn]

Just don't land in the Gulf of America - been there, done that!

[Still Waters]

On 2/3/2025 at 1:22 PM, Alchopwn said:

1.2% is actually pretty high.

It's now  2.3%

https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/2025/02/07/nasa-continues-to-monitor-orbit-of-near-earth-asteroid-2024-yr4/

Quote

 But according to new calculations, there's an even smaller chance that it might crash into the moon instead.

https://www.livescience.com/space/city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-could-hit-the-moon-instead-of-us-scientists-say

[Amanda Evans]

Is it time to prepare the bunker?

[Alchopwn]

On 2/14/2025 at 11:28 PM, Still Waters said:

It's now  2.3%

Yes, it all seems a bit more ominous now.  Will the figure continue to rise?

[Still Waters]

3 hours ago, Alchopwn said:

Will the figure continue to rise?

Nasa is keeping an eye on this, if I see any updates I'll post them.

[docyabut2]

https://globalnews.ca/news/11023757/yr4-asteroid-hit-earth-possibility-percentage-record-high-2032/#:~:text=On Feb. 7%2C experts at,appear on a roulette wheel.

[Ell]

We live in interesting times.

 

Everyone, if necessary be ready to remove your windows no later than Dec. 21, 2032.

[+and-then]

I'm sort of glad I won't be here for that little party.  

[Still Waters]

Dark Skies Bring New Observations of Asteroid 2024 YR4, Lower Impact Probability

NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California has incorporated the new observations reported to the Minor Planet Center and on Feb. 18, updated the impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 in 2032 to 3.1%. This is the highest impact probability NASA has ever recorded for an object of this size or larger. However, on Wednesday, Feb. 19, new data collected overnight reduced the impact probability to 1.5%.

https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/2025/02/19/dark-skies-bring-new-observations-of-asteroid-2024-yr4-lower-impact-probability/

Additional Observations Continue to Reduce Chance of Asteroid Impact in 2032

Observations made overnight on Feb. 19 – 20 of asteroid 2024 YR4 have further decreased its chance of Earth impact on Dec. 22, 2032, to 0.28%. NASA’s planetary defense teams will continue to monitor the asteroid to improve our predictions of the asteroid’s trajectory. With this new data, the chance of an impact with the Moon increased slightly to 1%. The latest data will continue to be available at NASA JPL’s automated Sentry page.

https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/2025/02/20/additional-observations-continue-to-reduce-chance-of-asteroid-impact-in-2032/

[Still Waters]

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer a hazard

 NASA's impact odds are now so slim that the asteroid is no longer a hazard on the Torino asteroid scale.

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/torino_scale.html

https://www.livescience.com/space/asteroids/thats-zero-folks-asteroid-2024-yr4-is-no-longer-a-hazard

[joseraul]

Darn. I was hoping it'd bring an end to all of this nonsense. 

[darkzoneromana]

And-then, why won't you be here?