Will the EU become a super power?

[Erikl]

Do you believe Europe (or should I say - the EU) is on a path to become a super power?

With the EU constitution being accepted in more and more EU members, and the future expansions of the Union, coupled with the success of the Euro and of the key EU members - UK, France and Germany - are we witnessing the birth of a new super power?

Also, what are your views about the future of the EU? will we ever see a Eurasian Union with Russia joining the EU? Will the EU abandon it's pacifistic policy and create a powerfull European military? and how all this will affect European-American relations?

[SnakeProphet]

This issue is way too complicated to only have 2 options.

EU maybe could become a world power with an "european leader".

[TheOriginalF]

It's hard to say, I think if organized properly than yes the EU could become a world super power. I think the main obsticle will be getting everybody on the same page of thought and ideology, once working as a unified power I think it's very possible.

[greychupa]

I think Europe is destroying itself. And, i dont think getting Turkey as a part of the EU is a good thing. Its just not a very European country, they are more Asia-like.

But, actually i dont care much. Its the same everywhere.

Just my opinion.

[SnakeProphet]

Asia-like?

[warden]

It's hard to say, I think if organized properly than yes the EU could become a world super power. I think the main obsticle will be getting everybody on the same page of thought and ideology, once working as a unified power I think it's very possible.

633431[/snapback]

You are right there T.O.F,the amount of back stabing and squabling that goes on right know makes them look like ****s,there is no danger it will get of the ground untill britain comes on board ,and they arnt going to untill the so called big three sorts its selfs out

If the major players in europe voted in new leaders,younger ones with fresh ideas there would be a chance of getting the ball rolling ,but with what we have at the moment ,i think there is no chance of it in the near future

Only my opinion,saying that it sounds like way over half of britain are thinking like that

[Tommy]

What do you think the future holds for the EU Erikl?

I voted No in your poll. I certainly don’t think it is inevitable that the EU is on a path to being a world superpower. I think that it does have the potential to be a superpower, as there are an ever-increasing number of States signing up and in doing so surrendering their sovereign powers, creating a more powerful body.

I also think it depends how you define a superpower. From dictionary.com “A powerful and influential nation, especially a nuclear power that dominates its allies or client states in an international power bloc”

The EU is certainly an influential global entity, but it doesn’t really have a military to back it up, or nuclear power to dominate its allies.

With the EU constitution being accepted in more and more EU members, and the future expansions of the Union, coupled with the success of the Euro and of the key EU members - UK, France and Germany - are we witnessing the birth of a new super power?

I think there is more evidence to suggest that France and Germany aren’t faring so well within Europe as membership increases; and I believe the UK is performing well because of our cautionary stance on not fully committing ourselves to European integration. I think that the EU is too much of a bureaucracy and also too diverse culturally and politically to become fully united behind a common ideology, and as such it won’t be a true superpower.

[Mekorig]

It will take a lot of time, but sooner or later the european countries will clean their diferences, and will make the EU a real superpower...

[Amalgamut]

I think there is too much turmoil between the countries. Seems like since the dawn of history these nations have constantly fought each other.

Edited May 23, 2005 by Amalgamut

[warden]

I think there is too much turmoil between the countries. Seems like since the dawn of history these nations have constantly fought each other.

635277[/snapback]

And they still are fighting each other ,this time over the table

I will be an old man before i see Europe as a super power

[Conspiracy]

i think it could.

[Mr Ed]

For the EU to become a military superpower it woud have to unite as a superstate. I highly doubt that this will happen considering views on the new constituion...even France is having trouble with that.

[Babs]

I read that they are trying to become a superpower to go up against the super dupper power U.S.. ...so I am suspicious of this.

[Mr Ed]

I hope you are joking, that is a load of rubbish. There is no way Europe can equal the US or China. China will probably over take the US economically, I hear.

[Blackleaf]

The EU is militarily weak. The ONLY EU country with real, substantial military power is Britain, and Britain is the only one that comes close to the US in terms of military technology. The rest of Europe is 30-40 years behind.

Economically, Western Europe is becoming insignificant. The EU may have overtaken the US, but the US WILL soon reclaim number 1 spot. Also, China and India will also overtake the EU. The EU will, at best, be the 4th largest economy.

The EU's population is shrinking. The EU now has a larger population than the US however, because its population is shrinking and America's is growing, the US will soon have a larger population than the EU even if the EU covered ALL of Europe including Russia.

Britain is the only large EU country whose population will grow in the 21st Century. Germany's current 82 million is projected to fall to 70 million by about 2020 (that will enable Britain to become Europe's largest economy), Italy will shrink from the current 57 million to just 44 million by 2020, and France will shrink slightly to about 56 million. Britain's, though, is projected to be about 70 million by about 2020, about the same size as Germany.

The EU will not become a superpower. In fact, I think the EU will soon break apart.

[Blackleaf]

Soon, the majority of Europeans will be Muslim. Britain has a population of 60 million - only 3 million of those are Muslim. France also has a population of 60 million - but 8 million are Muslim.

Europe Closing Shop?

Demographics: The population of Europe is set to start shrinking soon. And if recent events there are any indication, that's not a good thing. We may be watching the slow-motion death of a civilization.

The events to which we refer have garnered little notice. Yet each, in its own way, is equally telling about the radical changes in store for Europe — and America as well.

On Friday, it was announced in Germany's Hesse state that all schools will soon offer instruction in Islam to Muslim students. Meanwhile, the U.S.-based Weekly Standard reports that a recent confidential government study found a surprising rise in religious expression among Muslims in French public schools.

What's wrong with all this? Maybe nothing. As in the U.S., many nations in Europe have more than one culture and many religions living within their borders. We are all open societies. The problem is what this says about Europe's future.

Europe is changing. The birthrate, now at 1.5 live births per female, is well below the 2.1 required just to replace its population. Birthrates of immigrant Muslim populations there are three times the average. Upshot: By 2020 or so, the European population will fall by more than 4% while the Muslim population will double.

By 2050, just to keep the current worker-to-retiree ratio intact, Europe will have to bring in an estimated 13.5 million immigrants each year. That's 608 million immigrants — the equivalent of 10 Germanys — over 45 years. Anything less will consign the Continent to unavoidable economic decline.

And where will all these newcomers come from? The same places they've come from in the past — Turkey, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Pakistan — all Muslim. Europe's new nursery.

This has ramifications for America as well. We assume that the Europe we'll be dealing with tomorrow will be much the same as Europe today — one that understands and shares our cultural values. The fact is, as Europe slowly becomes more Muslim and less European, it is at risk of dying — not as a place, but as a culture.

Europe's faithless Christianity is already moribund. In London, more people worship in mosques each week than in the Church of England's houses of worship. And in France, there are more practicing Muslims than baptized Catholics.

This means the U.S. will increasingly be isolated in world affairs. For example, will a Europe of, say, 50 million Muslims be more hostile to the U.S.' pro-Israel policy? Seems likely.

Europe's politics may also become more unstable. Al-Qaida cells have already been found in Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Politicians in the Netherlands have been assassinated for "insulting" Islam.

Demographic trends also put the U.S. economy at risk. Two years ago, at a much-hyped conference in Spain titled "Islam in Europe," 2,000 European Muslim leaders called on Muslims around the world to help bring about an end to the capitalist system.

As the biggest player in that system, the U.S. faces a delicate task: how to keep an old but estranged friend from committing suicide.

www.investors.com . . .

[Babs]

Blackleaf...that was terrrific.

[Hans Dolbrook]

they are'nt going to become a superpower until they become one country/government,and that is'nt happening anytime soon.

[Mr Ed]

What the hell?! You have to be joking to say that the majority of Europeans will be Muslim. Hang your head in shame.

[Vallheru]

I think Europe is destroying itself. And, i dont think getting Turkey as a part of the EU is a good thing. Its just not a very European country, they are more Asia-like.

But, actually i dont care much. Its the same everywhere.

Just my opinion.

633602[/snapback]

Interesting point. As long as we are in the EU, it will be difficult for them to come in....i mean we can veto them to high heaven....

Anyhow, I believe everyone is forgetting the greatest European country in every aspect: Russia. If they come in at some point, and they will evetually, then the only adversary will be China. Imagine a EU double the size, with a huge European army, far bigger and better than the US, financially backed up by the Germans and the French (and the Russians of course). Additionally, oil, which is a problem for the Eu will not be a particular problem any more (Russia is the biggest producer of the stuff). As to the point of Muslims, it is true that they have more children than the rest of us; yet, they have achieved to make themselves disliked by the western europeans (the eastern europeans are more used to them...) Anyhow, if and when Russia becomes part then the answer will be yes...

[Tommy]

That’s quite interesting about Russia Vallheru.

A bit unrelated, but I recently had to do an essay on the Single European Market and the competitive status of the EU in relation to other trading blocs, and in terms of trade, the future for both the EU and the US it is set to change quite dramatically.

Europe is setting up a Euro-Mediterranean Free-Trade Area, which combined with EFTA will give a market of 600-800 million consumers in 40 countries! (the EU has currently 455 million consumers) LINK on EMFTA

America it seems is setting up a ‘Free Trade Area of the Americas’ comprising 34 countries (only excluding Cuba I think?) and a market of 840 million consumers, with an annual output of over $15 trillion! FTAA

In the future we are probably likely to see a Transatlantic Free Trade Area which will combine both these huge trading blocs. I think it is amazing how much we are converging on a global scale!

[Vallheru]

That’s quite interesting about Russia Vallheru.   

A bit unrelated, but I recently had to do an essay on the Single European Market and the competitive status of the EU in relation to other trading blocs, and in terms of trade, the future for both the EU and the US it is set to change quite dramatically.

Europe is setting up a Euro-Mediterranean Free-Trade Area, which combined with EFTA will give a market of 600-800 million consumers in 40 countries!  (the EU has currently 455 million consumers) LINK on EMFTA

America it seems is setting up a ‘Free Trade Area of the Americas’ comprising 34 countries (only excluding Cuba I think?) and a market of 840 million consumers, with an annual output of over $15 trillion! FTAA

In the future we are probably likely to see a Transatlantic Free Trade Area which will combine both these huge trading blocs.  I think it is amazing how much we are converging on a global scale! 

637251[/snapback]

Well, to put it in another perspective, the problem is not creating big, unified markets; the problem is creating suitable consumers in them.

Would you make a super market in central Namimbia, where you can sell your products to 0.1% of the population? No.

So, in order to create such a market, you need to upgrade the less developed components of it and then expand. At the moment, the EU consists of 4-5 strong nations in every sense, in a national as well as individual level. Then another group, which is still developing but is still behind. Then there are the new former-Eastern block countries which are decades behind. Not to mention how far back the Russians are (although I believe they are the only ones that can suddenly leap forward-it's in their nature I think). Still, the biggest problem is not a financial one but a humanistic one; the cultural differences are still great among the European union. These things in any case are long-known problems, no need to mention them here.

So, there is a long way anyway, we can just watch back and see how it goes....

[Mekorig]

That’s quite interesting about Russia Vallheru.   

A bit unrelated, but I recently had to do an essay on the Single European Market and the competitive status of the EU in relation to other trading blocs, and in terms of trade, the future for both the EU and the US it is set to change quite dramatically.

Europe is setting up a Euro-Mediterranean Free-Trade Area, which combined with EFTA will give a market of 600-800 million consumers in 40 countries!  (the EU has currently 455 million consumers) LINK on EMFTA

America it seems is setting up a ‘Free Trade Area of the Americas’ comprising 34 countries (only excluding Cuba I think?) and a market of 840 million consumers, with an annual output of over $15 trillion! FTAA

In the future we are probably likely to see a Transatlantic Free Trade Area which will combine both these huge trading blocs.  I think it is amazing how much we are converging on a global scale! 

637251[/snapback]

Sbout the FTAA, USA is having a rough time triying to build it. Almost every country in south america wants to alter the base of that proyect, because in the ay the USA wants it, its more perjudicial than beneficial. I keep whit the MERCOSUR thanks.

[Erikl]

The EU is militarily weak. The ONLY EU country with real, substantial military power is Britain, and Britain is the only one that comes close to the US in terms of military technology. The rest of Europe is 30-40 years behind.

Rubbish.

While Britain (and France, btw) are the only substantial military powers in Europe, Europe is leading in almost every military technology. They simply do not use the stuff - they sell it.

Also, both France and the UK are nuclear powers.

The "problem" is that Europe is still locked in it's pacifist ideals, but as soon as a threat will come about, I'm assure you that money will start flowing to create a huge European military.

conomically, Western Europe is becoming insignificant. The EU may have overtaken the US, but the US WILL soon reclaim number 1 spot. Also, China and India will also overtake the EU. The EU will, at best, be the 4th largest economy.

Again, rubbish. The EU is actually becoming more and more significant economically, and while France and Germany seem to be in troubles these days, the UK, the third foot that holds the EU (with the french and germans being the other two), is becoming more and more powerful economically. Soon France and Germany will follow. Plus, the addition of the eastern bloc will eventually in 10-15 years increase the EU economically.

China is about 20 years away from even becoming close to the US or EU, because the majority of Chinese live in poverty.

India is about 30-40 years away - the majority of Indians live in great poverty.

The EU's population is shrinking. The EU now has a larger population than the US however, because its population is shrinking and America's is growing, the US will soon have a larger population than the EU even if the EU covered ALL of Europe including Russia.

While I agree this is a problem, you are obviously exegerrating. And if the EU will include Russia, this problem will be delayed in about 100 years.

Britain is the only large EU country whose population will grow in the 21st Century. Germany's current 82 million is projected to fall to 70 million by about 2020 (that will enable Britain to become Europe's largest economy), Italy will shrink from the current 57 million to just 44 million by 2020, and France will shrink slightly to about 56 million. Britain's, though, is projected to be about 70 million by about 2020, about the same size as Germany.

Again, total rubbish. No way will in 15 years 12 million people be gone (the case with Germany) or additional 11 million will be born in the UK. Also, France's population isn't shrinking - many muslims immigrate into France and compensate for the fact the Christian French population is shrinking. Hence, I think that France's population will actually increase in the next 30 years.

The EU will not become a superpower. In fact, I think the EU will soon break apart.

There is such a possibilty, though I think that if it'll happen, it would be because of the EU failure to integrate the Balkan states.

Soon, the majority of Europeans will be Muslim. Britain has a population of 60 million - only 3 million of those are Muslim. France also has a population of 60 million - but 8 million are Muslim.

You contradict yourself.

The only reason Britain's population is increasing, is because immigration from Pakistan - ie, more muslims. It won't be long before the muslims will be 5-6 million in the UK as well. I give it 20 years.

With that said, the muslim population of the EU is "only" 30 million. Out of about 450 million EU citizens, this is about 6%.

As to the point of Muslims, it is true that they have more children than the rest of us; yet, they have achieved to make themselves disliked by the western europeans (the eastern europeans are more used to them...original.gif) Anyhow, if and when Russia becomes part then the answer will be yes...

Hmm actually, besides Russia, most of eastern Europe is empty of muslim population. Most of the EU's muslim population is concentrated in Western Europe. The reason for this is that since 1945-1990, eastern europe was closed for the western european countries, and so they allowed massive muslim immigration for cheap labour. Now that this is gone, I'm sure we will see more immigration from the eastern bloc instead of N. Africa, like the days before WW2 (back then most of the immigrants in Western Europe were Eastern Europeans, not muslims).

[Vallheru]

Hmm actually, besides Russia, most of eastern Europe is empty of muslim population. Most of the EU's muslim population is concentrated in Western Europe. The reason for this is that since 1945-1990, eastern europe was closed for the western european countries, and so they allowed massive muslim immigration for cheap labour. Now that this is gone, I'm sure we will see more immigration from the eastern bloc instead of N. Africa, like the days before WW2 (back then most of the immigrants in Western Europe were Eastern Europeans, not muslims).

637380[/snapback]

Well, that is true, but what I meant is that we, being neighbours to them, know them a bit more....but, due to the nature of our religion, we can't mingle with them, truly.

[edit-fixed quote]

Edited May 24, 2005 by Tommy