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Have you suffered from 'hindsight bias' ?

Posted on Sunday, 9 September, 2012 | Comment icon 15 comments | News tip by: Still Waters


Image credit: Andrew Mason

 
Those who 'knew the answer all along' may not be quite as clever as they are making themselves out to be.

If you have ever watched a murder mystery on TV and someone in the room announces at the end that they knew all along who the culprit was, even if they didn't, that person may be exhibiting hindsight bias. Several factors can contribute to this, for instance it is possible for memories to become distorted if the event had been discussed beforehand. While relatively harmless, when this happens it can prevent someone from learning why something has happened or prevent them from accepting advice.

"Too often we actually didn’t know it all along, we only feel as though we did," researchers wrote in the Perspectives on Psychological Science journal. "It’s often hard to convince seasoned decision-makers that they might fall prey to hindsight bias."

"Now it is the braggarts’ turn to be found out. Scientists claim to have established that, far from being super-sleuths, such people are usually deluded."

  View: Full article

 Source: Telegraph


  Discuss: View comments (15)

   


 
Recent comments on this story
Comment icon #6 Posted by Ryegrog on 9 September, 2012, 15:45
Either that, or it is simply the intellectual superiority complex. A.K.A. Human Pride/Ego
Comment icon #7 Posted by questionmark on 9 September, 2012, 16:10
Either that, or it is simply the intellectual superiority complex. Inferiority complex that would be, people with inferiority complex project themselves greater than they are, people with superiority complex smaller than they are.
Comment icon #8 Posted by Skeptic Chicken on 9 September, 2012, 18:18
THEEEEEEEEEEEEN you get the person who says they knew it all along, and you ask them how they figured it out. Turns out they can't give any reasons.
Comment icon #9 Posted by Junior Chubb on 9 September, 2012, 19:53
I live on 'hindsight bias'...
Comment icon #10 Posted by SpectralEdge on 10 September, 2012, 23:05
That is why I always whisper the answer to my husband. So we can knuckle bump at the end. But, in more seriousness, I do know a know it all. Nothing worse than having a conversation about something and they ALWAYS have their own situation to interject because they know SO much about it, even though three minutes ago they told you they had no idea about the topic at hand. Usually that conversation goes along with them staring blankly while you talk about something, then they will suddenly light up and agree with you as though they suddenly remember something they have always known. Is very...od... [More]
Comment icon #11 Posted by Opinionist on 12 September, 2012, 4:34
Sometimes it's pride,sometimes they just thought it was easy to predict.I hate the former.
Comment icon #12 Posted by HuttonEtAl on 12 September, 2012, 9:31
Looks like we have discovered why people are religious
Comment icon #13 Posted by Harsh86_Patel on 12 September, 2012, 11:54
This study basically states that people who have deja vu are dillusional and bragarts.This cannot be used to explain away truely intelligent people who can actually rationally predict events before they happen and it is usually considered as a Good quality called 'foresight'. Hind sight bias in most ocassion is not a conscious thing but a subconscious assimilation of facts.Its like you wait till what like the 5th standard before you learn about gravity theoretically but you feel that you already knew gravity was there though you wouldn't go about telling people that there is gravity but when y... [More]
Comment icon #14 Posted by Abramelin on 12 September, 2012, 16:07
Every family has one: at the climax of a gripping murder mystery the same know-it-all will declare smugly, “I knew the culprit all along”. Now it is the braggarts’ turn to be found out. Scientists claim to have established that, far from being super-sleuths, such people are usually deluded. Researchers found that they are suffering from “hindsight bias”, when a person genuinely believes that they know something when in fact they are hearing or seeing it for the first time. Although the effects might seem relatively harmless, researchers claimed it could prevent people learning why something ha... [More]
Comment icon #15 Posted by Skeptic Chicken on 14 September, 2012, 2:30


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