How likely is it that we will find an advanced alien civilization within our own Milky Way galaxy ?
In 1961 astronomer Frank Drake proposed a famous equation designed to calculate the number of detectable alien civilizations within our own galaxy. The calculation required numerous factors, many of which were controversial or unobtainable such as the percentage of alien civilizations that have developed electromagnetic radiation emitting technologies. The results of the equation therefore could be considered speculative at best.
In 2010 however Italian astronomer Claudio Maccone developed a new version of the equation known as the SDE ( Statistical Drake Equation ). This revision is a little more robust than the original, filling in the blanks using the Central Limit Theorem. According to his findings there is a 75% chance of finding an alien civilization between 1,361 and 3,979 light-years from Earth.
"Looking to the Drake equation factors, it is obvious that none can be precisely determined by modern science."
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