Science & Technology

Will we see a future without war ?

By T.K. Randall
December 4, 2012 ·  54 comments

Image Credit: sxc.hu Professor Håvard Hegre and colleagues at the Peace Research Institute in Oslo have set up a statistical model to simulate the likelihood of conflicts in countries around the world. The model takes in to account factors such as infant mortality, education and population to calculate what is likely to occur within the next few decades. The results were quite encouraging, suggesting that conflicts would halve in number by the year 2050 with some of the biggest improvements occurring in the Middle-East.

While the predictions are far from perfect, they do help offer a glimpse in to what could be a more peaceful future. One thing is for certain however, there has been a substantial downward trend in global conflicts over the last 50 years. If nothing else the model would seem to suggest that for the foreseeable future at least, this trend is likely set to continue.[!gad]Professor Håvard Hegre and colleagues at the Peace Research Institute in Oslo have set up a statistical model to simulate the likelihood of conflicts in countries around the world. The model takes in to account factors such as infant mortality, education and population to calculate what is likely to occur within the next few decades. The results were quite encouraging, suggesting that conflicts would halve in number by the year 2050 with some of the biggest improvements occurring in the Middle-East.

While the predictions are far from perfect, they do help offer a glimpse in to what could be a more peaceful future. One thing is for certain however, there has been a substantial downward trend in global conflicts over the last 50 years. If nothing else the model would seem to suggest that for the foreseeable future at least, this trend is likely set to continue.

Source: Time Magazine | Comments (54)

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