Extraterrestrial

New study: there is a 1 in 3 chance that we are alone in the universe

By T.K. Randall
October 29, 2025 ·  45 comments

Image: Milky Way Galaxy Seen From Amphu Laptsa Base Camp
Credit: Pravin Mishra / CC BY-SA 4.0 (adapted) The question of whether we are alone in the universe remains one of the biggest philosophical conundrums of our time. While it seems almost inconceivable that our civilization is alone in the cosmos, the fact still remains that we have yet to see any evidence to the contrary.

The Fermi paradox, which highlights the contradiction between the likely existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the fact that we have still never encountered any, seems to suggest that either there are no aliens out there, or they are so rare that it is unlikely we would ever come across them.

Now according to Hungarian mathematician Dr Veres Antal, there is a 1 in 3 chance that the Earth may lie in the so-called 'Solitude Zone' - a statistical window in which it is more likely for there to be just one technologically advanced civilization than there is for there to be several (or none).

"For simple life, solitude is virtually impossible," he wrote. "Whereas for extremely advanced civilizations, it may become the dominant statistical expectation."Dr Antal argues that the probability of whether or not a civilization lies in the Solitude Zone can be calculated from three factors: the number of planets in the universe, the complexity of our civilization and the probability that a civilization of this complexity could exist at all.

Based on this, he calculates a 29.1 percent chance that we are in this zone.

Of course, there's really no way for anyone to test this out - it remains an intriguing probability exercise, but one with a significant margin for error.

As things stand, our window on the universe is still extremely small, meaning that there is every chance that the universe could be genuinely teeming with intelligent civilizations that we simply haven't come across yet.

Source: Mail Online | Comments (45)

Tags: Alien, Extraterrestrial