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Science & Technology

Scientists predict 'mini ice age' by 2030

By T.K. Randall
December 27, 2017 · Comment icon 85 comments

Could frost fairs on the Thames make a comeback ? Image Credit: Thomas Wyke
A new mathematical model of the Sun's magnetic activity has indicated that we may soon be in for a cold spell.
Despite the effects of global warming, scientists from universities in the UK and Russia have determined that temperatures may plummet, rather than rise, within the next 12 years.

This cold period could begin as early as 2021, leading to winters so cold by 2030 that the river Thames will freeze over, just as it did during a similar cold spell in the 17th century.
During that time, the cold was so pervasive that frost fairs were famously held out on the ice.

The new model predicts, with 97% accuracy, a rapid reduction in the Sun's magnetic activity for three solar cycles, however due to climate change it is difficult to say for sure what will happen.

"I hope global warning will be overridden by this effect, giving humankind and the Earth 30 years to sort out our pollution," said Professor Valentina Zharkova of Northumbria University.

Source: Sky News | Comments (85)

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Comment icon #76 Posted by Doug1029 7 years ago
Read the sentence again.  I can reproduce the global figures using Oklahoma's data.  That would be impossible if there wasn't a correlation between the two.  So what does Oklahoma's weather have to do with global temps?  Quite a bit. Doug
Comment icon #77 Posted by Doug1029 7 years ago
Just about everything.  You're working under the assumption of independence, that weather in one place does not influence and is not influenced by weather in another place.  BUT:  the best predictor of weather in one town is the weather in the next town over.  They are not independent.  The whole world is linked together. Oklahoma conveniently predicts world weather only because it is in an area that is dry, but not too dry.  If it were wetter, the warming signal would be so weak we couldn't find it.  And if it were dryer, the warming signal would drown out the correlation with the rest... [More]
Comment icon #78 Posted by Doug1029 7 years ago
One can easily estimate how much effect a cold sun would have on temps.  Just create a regression model using sunspots to predict temps.  Then set the sunspot count to zero and see what happens.  The answer is:  not much.  Things are a little colder, but by only three or four degrees.  One could also include things like [CO2] in that model, or anything else for which one could create a time-series.  Set the chosen variable to a constant (the average value is popular), then see what happens when it doesn't change. That's how we determined how much effect people were having on climate: ... [More]
Comment icon #79 Posted by Glockornothing 7 years ago
Sounds like it might get colder, if we would have used a mule load of US taxpayers money and stayed in that Paris scheme would we have averted this, or would we still have to buy warmer jackets and wool socks.
Comment icon #80 Posted by Doug1029 7 years ago
The last time the solar cycle went to zero was in August 2009.  Temperatures that year rose very slightly (0.03 degrees).  The rise, though small, was steady, showing no influence from the solar cycle, or any other cycle, for that matter.  The next solar minimum will be in 2020/2021.  A slight cooling about that time would be no surprise.  But after that, they'll go back up again and we probably won't even notice. IF:  a "cold sun" influences climate on earth, it will have to do it over a prolonged time span to have any effect.  We're talking years-to-centuries here. The Little Ice Age ... [More]
Comment icon #81 Posted by Derek Willis 7 years ago
The mini ice-age is predicted for 2030? I think many parts of the US would say it has already arrived!
Comment icon #82 Posted by DieChecker 7 years ago
I think this has been true ALL over the map of deniers and alarmists. Really, it is amazing how every year we have "experts" going online, and on TV, who point at tornadoes, wildfires, or droughts, and scream, "Global WARMING!!!"  I've looked at the data and agree that overall Global Temperatures are going up. I just don't think those people who go to the Media and scream like Chicken Little that the sky is falling are doing the science behind this any favors. The climate scientists who are putting the numbers forward should be going after idiots like Al Gore (who means well, but is simply a ... [More]
Comment icon #83 Posted by Doug1029 7 years ago
Al Gore made the topic political.  We'd all be a lot better off if he hadn't done that. Doug
Comment icon #84 Posted by Awhis 7 years ago
Global Warming will actually speed up this process. Increases in water due to glacier melt will make massive winter storms in the future. 
Comment icon #85 Posted by DieChecker 6 years ago
Depends. Global Warming could possibly increase snowfall to a larger percentage of the northern hemisphere, and that could possibly end up triggering an effect where sunlight was reflected more and allowed for a cooling in the north. However, since the north has consistently warmed, this is not likely to happen, IMHO. Unless the snow sticks around (As in months), it doesn't have a tremendous effect on the temperature. I also do think "glacier melt" is way overused and way overstated. Antarctica (If I am remembering right) has actually gained ice mass over the last decade.

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