Monday, April 6, 2020
Contact us    |    Advertise    |   Help    |   Cookie Policy    |   Privacy Policy    RSS icon Twitter icon Facebook icon
    Home  ·  News  ·  Forum  ·  Stories  ·  Image Gallery  ·  Columns  ·  Encyclopedia  ·  Videos
Find: in

Could Hitler have won the Battle of Britain ?


Posted on Saturday, 11 January, 2020 | Comment icon 25 comments

The Spitfire was a staple of the RAF's defense efforts. Image Credit: PD - Royal Air Force
Mathematicians have used statistical models to calculate how different WW2 strategies would have played out.
The Battle of Britain - which saw a relatively small number of Royal Air Force (RAF) planes defend the skies over the UK against the much larger force of Germany's Luftwaffe - is often regarded to be one of the most pivotal moments of the Second World War.

But what if Hitler had tried a different tactic - would it have ever been possible for him to win ?

Now in a renewed effort to answer this question, mathematicians from the University of York have used statistical models to determine the likely outcome of various alternative strategies.

"The weighted bootstrap technique allowed us to model alternative campaigns in which the Luftwaffe prolongs or contracts the different phases of the battle and varies its targets," said Dr. Jamie Wood.The results of the analysis suggested that if the Luftwaffe had started its attack 3 months earlier and had focused on Britain's airfields instead of its cities, the outcome would have been very different.

If the likelihood of the RAF's success was 50% in the real battle, these changes would have reduced the chances of a victory over the Luftwaffe to a mere 10%.

"It demonstrates just how finely-balanced the outcomes of some of the biggest moments of history were," said Professor Niall Mackay.

"Even when we use the actual days' events of the battle, make a small change of timing or emphasis to the arrangement of those days and things might have turned out very differently."

Source: Phys.org | Comments (25)

Tags: World War II, Battle of Britain

Recent comments on this story
Comment icon #16 Posted by hetrodoxly on 12 January, 2020, 9:35
'If' there hadn't been a counter attack 'the 2nd battle of Arras' stopping Rommel and causing him to make the decision to wait for his stretched out supply lines to catch up the troops wouldn't have been rescued.   
Comment icon #17 Posted by Tom1200 on 12 January, 2020, 17:16
If... late July 1888... there'd been something better on Austrian telly that night... Alois and Klara might have stayed up later and then been too tired to make babies.
Comment icon #18 Posted by South Alabam on 20 January, 2020, 23:32
Hitler constantly ignored the advice of his Generals, so it is doubtful there could have been a different outcome.
Comment icon #19 Posted by Jon the frog on 23 January, 2020, 1:35
Japan and Germany were unable top win a long war... and engaged themselves in a long war. The only way for them to win is that others nation throw the towel and turn their head.
Comment icon #20 Posted by Habitat on 23 January, 2020, 1:57
Well, the generals did like to promote that idea, after the war, I think it fair to say Hitler had a lot better military smarts than say, Churchill, for who some senior military people believed it was a matter of "limiting the damage" from being pushed into his schemes. We have been told innumerable times that prioritizing taking Moscow would have won the war for Germany, but given how Stalingrad turned out, that seems rather doubtful.
Comment icon #21 Posted by Alchopwn on 23 January, 2020, 13:16
Germany had a lot of little things against it.  For example Wilhelm Carnaris, the German Admiral and head of the Abwehr was a British Agent.  Then there was the fact that German fighters didn't use drop tanks.  And the problem with the allied discovery of an intact German magnetic sea mine.  Then there was the cracking of enigma.  Oh, and of course Hitler's "military genius", especially his insistence that bombers attack civilian targets after the provocative Aug 25th 1940 RAF raid on Berlin. I have played thru various Operation Sea Lion scenarios in wargames over the years, and it is quite po... [More]
Comment icon #22 Posted by RoofGardener on 23 January, 2020, 13:29
Unlikely. It is more likely that the Russians would have won it. Most of Europe - possibly eventually including the UK - would have fallen to Stalin. 
Comment icon #23 Posted by Essan on 23 January, 2020, 13:53
Not sure.  Depends on how/when the US enters the war and how they support Russia.   Without the Arctic convoys, and with Germany fighting only on the one front, they might very well have won in Russia.    And with Britain defeated they would have had a free hand in North Africa and the Middle East as well. The Battle of Britain was probably the defining moment of WW2 for that reason. 
Comment icon #24 Posted by RoofGardener on 23 January, 2020, 15:23
Indeed. If the UK had fallen to Germany, then the USA would not have been able to base its invasion fleet here. So whether Russia or Germany where ultimately victorious (and my betting is on the Russians), then the USA would be relegated to the role of spectator. 
Comment icon #25 Posted by hetrodoxly on 23 January, 2020, 17:24
Without the north Atlantic fleet feeding and arming Russia, Without the German war machine being bombed, Monty kicking Rommel out of Africa denying it all the fuel it needed, without the Royal Navy keeping the waterways open, without the commandos destroying the deep docks in Nazaire, Hitler would have taken his time, it was the Russian winter that beat the Germans has it had done Napoleon over a 100 years before, Germany would have developed nuclear weapons first, Russia fought on one front, we fought in every theater of war, not to mention the RAF stationed in Russia.


Please Login or Register to post a comment.


  On the forums
Forum posts:
Forum topics:
Members:

6681554
278886
184563

 
Deep-sea squid 'talk' in the dark by glowing
4-6-2020
The Humboldt squid has evolved a novel solution to the problem of communicating in the depths of the ocean.
Patrolling Dalek orders people to self-isolate
4-6-2020
One of Doctor Who's most iconic villains was filmed patrolling the streets ordering people to stay at home.
Super Pink Moon will grace the sky this week
4-6-2020
The impressive lunar spectacle will see the Moon appear bigger and brighter than at any other time this year.
How do astronauts exercise aboard the ISS ?
4-5-2020
The crew of the orbital outpost have created a video explaining how they manage to stay fit in space.
Stories & Experiences
In over my head
3-3-2020 | CA
 
Stranger at night
3-3-2020 | Merritt Island, FL, U.S.
 
The babysitter
2-8-2020 | ON
 
Mystery brain surgery and JFK
2-7-2020 | Toronto Ontario Canada
 
 
I keep bringing spirits home
2-7-2020 | Michigan
 
Dog and Jamaican statue
1-10-2020 | Canada
 
 
Life changing experience
12-19-2019 | Australia
 
Unexplained smoke or fog
12-19-2019 | West Texas, USA
 

         More stories | Send us your story
Featured Videos
Gallery icon 
10 strange things about our solar system
Posted 3-17-2020 | 0 comments
A look at some of the most mysterious things about our solar system.
 
Lizzie - Scotland's other loch monster
Posted 3-8-2020 | 0 comments
Amelia Dimoldenberg investigates the Loch Ness Monster's neighbor.
 
Adam Savage and Spot
Posted 2-14-2020 | 4 comments
Adam Savage tests out Boston Dynamics' impressive Spot robot.
 
NASA 2020: Are you ready ?
Posted 1-1-2020 | 3 comments
A look at what's coming up in the world of spaceflight this year.
 
Is it possible to levitate a human ?
Posted 12-15-2019 | 2 comments
Science enthusiast Rick Edwards attempts to unlock the secret of levitation.
 
 View: More videos
 
Top   |  Home   |   Forum   |   News   |   Image Gallery   |  Columns   |   Encyclopedia   |   Videos   |   Polls
UM-X 10.712 Unexplained-Mysteries.com (c) 2001-2020
Terms   |   Privacy Policy   |   Cookies   |   Advertise   |   Contact   |   Help/FAQ