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Space & Astronomy

Odds of 'killer' asteroid impact in next 1,000 years are 'very low'

By T.K. Randall
May 20, 2023 · Comment icon 4 comments

It looks like we are safe... for now. Image Credit: CC BY-SA 4.0 Pablo Carlos Budassi
A reassuring new study has found that we may be safe from extinction asteroid impacts... at least for the time being.
It's one of the most terrifying apocalyptic scenarios imaginable and something that has actually happened numerous times throughout our planet's history.

Now, though, a new study headed up by Oscar Fuentes-Munoz from the University of Colorado Boulder has significantly played down the risk of a huge asteroid hitting our planet anytime soon.

The research involved using new methods to predict the paths of NASA's entire catalogue of dangerous near-Earth objects up to 1,000 years into the future.

The results are certainly promising - the most dangerous candidate is a 0.8-mile asteroid that has a mere 0.00151% of passing closer than the orbit of the Moon within the next ten centuries.
Beyond that, the next riskiest is ten times less likely to do so.

Of course this study doesn't take into account asteroids that NASA hasn't seen - it is always possible that there is a killer asteroid out there that we have yet to detect.

In addition, this doesn't mean that we should give up on developing space missions capable of deflecting or destroying an incoming asteroid should the need arise.

On the whole, though, it is nothing if not an encouraging result.

Source: Live Science | Comments (4)

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Recent comments on this story
Comment icon #1 Posted by MysteryMike 11 months ago
Why does anyone care? No one will be here by then.
Comment icon #2 Posted by Waspie_Dwarf 11 months ago
Because some people have a social conscious perhaps. 
Comment icon #3 Posted by and-then 11 months ago
"Of course this study doesn't take into account asteroids that NASA hasn't seen - it is always possible that there is a killer asteroid out there that we have yet to detect."   Well, at least the known objects have had their movements analyzed and we know they'll be no threat.  It's also encouraging that they're still motivated to research means of intervention should a danger be spotted.
Comment icon #4 Posted by Antigonos 11 months ago
Hazards due to Comets and Asteroids by Tom Gehrels published in 1995 by University of Arizona Press. At 1300 pages, still one of the most comprehensive reference sources for this engrossing subject.

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