Space & Astronomy

200-foot asteroid has 1 in 83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032

By T.K. Randall
February 5, 2025

Image: AI-generated (Midjourney) Known simply as Asteroid 2024 YR4, this otherwise unassuming space rock might not seem particularly notable but there is a very real (albeit still small) chance that it will collide with the Earth in seven years' time.

At present, scientists estimate that it has a 1-in-83 chance of impacting our planet in the year 2032.

It was discovered last Christmas by Arizona's Catalina Sky Survey and is described as having "one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever."

The potential "risk corridor" for a collision places the impact site in a region of the world stretching from South America to Central Africa and also into India, but this could change over time.While 1-in-83 might sound like a relatively high probability, however, it is likely that - as the asteroid approaches and astronomers can better track its trajectory - these odds will change so that the risk of a collision will reduce exponentially.

Even now, these odds represent a mere 1.2% chance of an impact.

It is also important to note even if it did happen to hit us, it wouldn't be an extinction-level event - at 200 feet in diameter it would cause some damage, but it wouldn't spell the doom of civilization.

"We are not worried at all, because of this 99 percent chance it will miss," NASA's director of the Center for Near Earth Object Studies Paul Chodas told Associated Press.

In other words - this is most likely not something that you will ever need to worry about.

Source: Independent

Tags: Asteroid