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Space & Astronomy

200-foot asteroid has 1 in 83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032

By T.K. Randall
February 5, 2025 · Comment icon 15 comments
Asteroid 2024 jr4
A visualization of Asteroid 2024 YR4. Image Credit: NASA
The space rock has a higher probability of an impact than any other asteroid we've seen in recent years.
Known simply as Asteroid 2024 YR4, this otherwise unassuming space rock might not seem particularly notable but there is a very real (albeit still small) chance that it will collide with the Earth in seven years' time.

At present, scientists estimate that it has a 1-in-83 chance of impacting our planet in the year 2032.

It was discovered last Christmas by Arizona's Catalina Sky Survey and is described as having "one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever."

The potential "risk corridor" for a collision places the impact site in a region of the world stretching from South America to Central Africa and also into India, but this could change over time.
While 1-in-83 might sound like a relatively high probability, however, it is likely that - as the asteroid approaches and astronomers can better track its trajectory - these odds will change so that the risk of a collision will reduce exponentially.

Even now, these odds represent a mere 1.2% chance of an impact.

It is also important to note even if it did happen to hit us, it wouldn't be an extinction-level event - at 200 feet in diameter it would cause some damage, but it wouldn't spell the doom of civilization.

"We are not worried at all, because of this 99 percent chance it will miss," NASA's director of the Center for Near Earth Object Studies Paul Chodas told Associated Press.

In other words - this is most likely not something that you will ever need to worry about.

Source: Independent | Comments (15)




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Recent comments on this story
Comment icon #6 Posted by Amanda Evans 1 month ago
Is it time to prepare the bunker?
Comment icon #7 Posted by Alchopwn 1 month ago
Yes, it all seems a bit more ominous now.  Will the figure continue to rise?
Comment icon #8 Posted by Still Waters 1 month ago
Nasa is keeping an eye on this, if I see any updates I'll post them.
Comment icon #9 Posted by docyabut2 29 days ago
https://globalnews.ca/news/11023757/yr4-asteroid-hit-earth-possibility-percentage-record-high-2032/#:~:text=On Feb. 7%2C experts at,appear on a roulette wheel.
Comment icon #10 Posted by Ell 29 days ago
We live in interesting times.   Everyone, if necessary be ready to remove your windows no later than Dec. 21, 2032.
Comment icon #11 Posted by and-then 29 days ago
I'm sort of glad I won't be here for that little party.  
Comment icon #12 Posted by Still Waters 26 days ago
Dark Skies Bring New Observations of Asteroid 2024 YR4, Lower Impact Probability NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California has incorporated the new observations reported to the Minor Planet Center and on Feb. 18, updated the impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 in 2032 to 3.1%. This is the highest impact probability NASA has ever recorded for an object of this size or larger. However, on Wednesday, Feb. 19, new data collected overnight reduced the impact probability to 1.5%. https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/2025/0... [More]
Comment icon #13 Posted by Still Waters 22 days ago
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer a hazard  NASA's impact odds are now so slim that the asteroid is no longer a hazard on the Torino asteroid scale. https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/torino_scale.html https://www.livescience.com/space/asteroids/thats-zero-folks-asteroid-2024-yr4-is-no-longer-a-hazard
Comment icon #14 Posted by joseraul 22 days ago
Darn. I was hoping it'd bring an end to all of this nonsense. 
Comment icon #15 Posted by darkzoneromana 22 days ago
And-then, why won't you be here?


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