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Space & Astronomy

200-foot asteroid has 1 in 83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032

By T.K. Randall
February 5, 2025 · Comment icon 21 comments
Asteroid 2024 jr4
A visualization of Asteroid 2024 YR4. Image Credit: NASA
The space rock has a higher probability of an impact than any other asteroid we've seen in recent years.
Known simply as Asteroid 2024 YR4, this otherwise unassuming space rock might not seem particularly notable but there is a very real (albeit still small) chance that it will collide with the Earth in seven years' time.

At present, scientists estimate that it has a 1-in-83 chance of impacting our planet in the year 2032.

It was discovered last Christmas by Arizona's Catalina Sky Survey and is described as having "one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever."

The potential "risk corridor" for a collision places the impact site in a region of the world stretching from South America to Central Africa and also into India, but this could change over time.
While 1-in-83 might sound like a relatively high probability, however, it is likely that - as the asteroid approaches and astronomers can better track its trajectory - these odds will change so that the risk of a collision will reduce exponentially.

Even now, these odds represent a mere 1.2% chance of an impact.

It is also important to note even if it did happen to hit us, it wouldn't be an extinction-level event - at 200 feet in diameter it would cause some damage, but it wouldn't spell the doom of civilization.

"We are not worried at all, because of this 99 percent chance it will miss," NASA's director of the Center for Near Earth Object Studies Paul Chodas told Associated Press.

In other words - this is most likely not something that you will ever need to worry about.

Source: Independent | Comments (21)




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Recent comments on this story
Comment icon #12 Posted by Still Waters 2 months ago
Dark Skies Bring New Observations of Asteroid 2024 YR4, Lower Impact Probability NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California has incorporated the new observations reported to the Minor Planet Center and on Feb. 18, updated the impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 in 2032 to 3.1%. This is the highest impact probability NASA has ever recorded for an object of this size or larger. However, on Wednesday, Feb. 19, new data collected overnight reduced the impact probability to 1.5%. https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/2025/0... [More]
Comment icon #13 Posted by Still Waters 2 months ago
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer a hazard  NASA's impact odds are now so slim that the asteroid is no longer a hazard on the Torino asteroid scale. https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/torino_scale.html https://www.livescience.com/space/asteroids/thats-zero-folks-asteroid-2024-yr4-is-no-longer-a-hazard
Comment icon #14 Posted by joseraul 2 months ago
Darn. I was hoping it'd bring an end to all of this nonsense. 
Comment icon #15 Posted by darkzoneromana 2 months ago
And-then, why won't you be here?
Comment icon #16 Posted by Still Waters 26 days ago
Webb telescope captures photos of the asteroid that won't hit Earth in 2032 NASA and the European Space Agency released the photos—showing the asteroid as a fuzzy dot—on Wednesday. Webb confirm the asteroid is nearly 200 feet (60 meters) across, or about the height of a 15-story building, according to the two space agencies. It's the smallest object ever observed by the observatory, the biggest and most powerful ever sent into space. Johns Hopkins University astronomer Andrew Rivkin said the observations by Webb served as "invaluable" practice for other asteroids that may threaten us down... [More]
Comment icon #17 Posted by Grim Reaper 6 26 days ago
Finnish astronomers and an international team jumped into action, using telescopes from the Canary Islands to NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope to track the object and refine its size, trajectory, and impact risk. Though the danger to Earth has now dropped dramatically, there’s still a small possibility it could strike the Moon, potentially causing debris that threatens satellites and human space activity. Asteroid 2024 YR4 Sparks Global Alert – Now It Might Hit the Moon Instead
Comment icon #18 Posted by flying squid 25 days ago
Now, the dinosaurs will become extinct on the Moon too.
Comment icon #19 Posted by DieChecker 24 days ago
It's going to miss us. We probably could use a good "impact" to reset everyone's priorities. We are so safe now, people on Tictok have arguments over eye shadow, and if men pee in the shower. C'Mon people. There needs to be a line below which things don't matter. We could use a small impact. If it huts the Moon. That might give a good fireworks show. Might knock out satellites, but I'd be better off without a phone anyway.
Comment icon #20 Posted by Cho Jinn 24 days ago
Slim, really?  I have about 1/2 dozen places it needs to impact right now.
Comment icon #21 Posted by Montello 22 days ago
we have luck


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