Space & Astronomy

Asteroid with chance of hitting Earth might now hit the Moon instead

By T.K. Randall
April 5, 2025 ·  21 comments

An artist's impression of the asteroid. Image Credit: NASA Earlier this year, concerns were raised when a fast-approaching space rock known as Asteroid 2024 YR4 was determined to have a 1 in 83 chance of colliding with the Earth in 2032.

As the days and weeks went on, the odds of a collision seemed to keep increasing and at one point were as high as 1 in 32 (still not enormous but sufficient enough to raise eyebrows).

Fortunately, though, once better observations of the object were made, the odds were ultimately revised down to the point of irrelevance with just a 0.001% chance of striking the Earth.

That would seem to have been the end of it, but more recently astronomers analyzing the asteroid have determined that it now has a not-insignificant chance of colliding with the Moon instead.

As things stand, there is thought to be a 3.8% chance that it could hit the Moon.If this did actually happen - what would it mean for us on Earth ?

According to NASA, the asteroid - which measures around 200ft across - is too small to shift the Moon's orbit, so we wouldn't have to worry about the Moon itself crashing down on us.

Similarly, it's unlikely that debris from a lunar impact would make its way down to us.

It is important to remember that there is still a 96.2% chance that the asteroid will not strike the Moon, although this figure could change (either up or down) over time.

Either way, however, it's not something that we need to be worrying about.

Source: Sky at Night | Comments (21)

Tags: Moon, Asteroid