Extraterrestrial

Updated Drake equation used to calculate number of alien civilizations

By T.K. Randall
June 1, 2024

Image: AI-generated (Midjourney) The question of whether we are alone in the universe remains one of the biggest philosophical conundrums of our time. While it seems almost inconceivable that our civilization is alone in the cosmos, the fact still remains that we have yet to see any evidence to the contrary.

The Fermi paradox, which highlights the contradiction between the likely existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the fact that we have still never encountered any, seems to suggest that either there are no aliens out there, or they are so rare that it is unlikely we would ever come across them.

The Drake equation, meanwhile, which is a formula designed to calculate the number of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy, has historically provided a more ambitious figure, suggesting (at least based on SETI pioneer Frank Drake's own calculations) that there are between 1,000 and 100,000,000 alien civilizations in our galaxy alone.

That said, much has changed since he came up with these numbers and now a team of researchers has taken on the challenge of recalculating the answer based on new and updated information.

In particular, the researchers have sought to emphasize the importance of plate tectonics in the development of life."Tectonic processes exposing fresh rocks on the surface are crucial for enhancing delivery of [phosphorus] and other inorganic nutrients," they wrote.

"The addition of [phosphorus], [iron] and other nutrients from erosion and weathering of Ediacaran collisional mountains broke the Mesoproterozoic nutrient drought, stimulating life and evolution."

The figure they initially came up with was between 0.006 and 100,000 intelligent civilizations, but this wasn't the final answer either as it was also necessary to take into account the likely penchant for such civilizations to destroy themselves with nukes, AI, viruses and other dangers.

This resulted in a final figure of between 0.0004 and 20,000 alien civilizations in the Milky Way.

It's a lot less than Drake's original prediction, but at least it's not zero.

Source: IFL Science

Tags: Alien, Extraterrestrial