Space & Astronomy

NASA offers final verdict on odds of asteroid striking the Moon in 2032

By T.K. Randall
March 6, 2026

Image: AI-generated (Midjourney) Back in 2025, concerns were raised when a fast-approaching space rock known as Asteroid 2024 YR4 was determined to have a 1 in 83 chance of colliding with the Earth in 2032.

As the days and weeks went on, the odds of a collision seemed to keep increasing and at one point were as high as 1 in 32 (still not enormous but sufficient enough to raise eyebrows).

Fortunately, though, once better observations of the object were made, the odds were ultimately revised down to the point of irrelevance with just a 0.001% chance of striking the Earth.

That would seem to have been the end of it, but then a short while later, astronomers analyzing the asteroid determined that it had a not-insignificant chance of colliding with the Moon instead. The odds of such a collision stood at as much as 4.3%, but now, following renewed observations, NASA has finally confirmed that the chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon are now essentially zero.

Based on the new data, Asteroid 2024 YR4 will pass approximately 21,200 km from the lunar surface.

The saga is an example of how collision estimates can change as an object approaches and new data is collected.

Of course, in some rare cases, there is a potential for the odds to go up, as well as down.

Source: NASA.gov

Tags: Asteroid