Study suggests that there are four malicious alien civilizations in our galaxy
May 27, 2022 | 58 comments
Are there any genuinely malicious aliens out there ? Image Credit: Henrique Alvim Correa
A new study has attempted to estimate how many intelligent alien civilizations pose a threat.
We have sent many signals out into the cosmos over the years, including some designed specifically to inform intelligent extraterrestrials that we exist and where to find us.
Critics, including the late Stephen Hawking, have argued that doing this could have disastrous consequences if we should happen to gain the attention of a particularly unpleasant alien race.
But just how many malicious extraterrestrial civilizations could be out there ?
In a new study, PhD student Alberto Caballero attempts to answer this question based on an analysis of 'invasions' on Earth (countries invading other countries), data regarding the estimated number of extrasolar planets in the Milky Way and a certain degree of guesswork.
The answer he ultimately came up with was 4.
He also determined that the chances of us being attacked and wiped out by such a civilization were extremely low - lower even than the chance of being wiped out by an asteroid strike.
"The probability of extraterrestrial invasion by a civilization whose planet we message is, therefore, around two orders of magnitude lower than the probability of a planet-killer asteroid collision," he wrote.
Of course, as things stand, we know nothing about any extraterrestrial civilizations that might be out there and basing their actions on what we know of human society is likely a futile exercise.
"We don't know the mind of extraterrestrials," Caballero told Motherboard.
"An extraterrestrial civilization may have a brain with a different chemical composition and they might not have our empathy or they might have more psychopathological behaviors."
"I found this way to do [the study], which has limitations, because we don't know [what alien minds] would be like."
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