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NASA downplays 2032 killer asteroid fears

Posted on Sunday, 20 October, 2013 | Comment icon 28 comments

There is less than a 1-in-63,000 chance of a collision. Image Credit: NASA/Don Davis

The asteroid known as 2013 TV135 was discovered by Ukranian astronomers earlier this month.

As word reached the media that a giant 1,300ft asteroid was hurtling towards us, headlines soon started to appear heralding the upcoming apocalypse with an estimated collision date of 2032 and the potential for the space rock to "blow apart" the Earth.

As tends to be the case with such discoveries however, the reality of the situation is that there is only a very slim chance indeed that 2013 TV135 will collide with our planet. The odds are currently less than 1-in-63,000 with the potential to drop a lot further as scientists determine more about the asteroid's trajectory.

"To put it another way, that puts the current probability of no impact in 2032 at about 99.998 percent," said NASA's Don Yeomans, manager of the Near-Earth Object Program Office. "With more observations, I fully expect we will be able to significantly reduce, or rule out entirely, any impact probability for the foreseeable future."

Source: IB Times | Comments (28)

Tags: Ukraine, Asteroid

Recent comments on this story
Comment icon #19 Posted by White Crane Feather on 25 October, 2013, 20:03
Are you sure about that. The chances of dieing in a fatal car crash are actually a lot less. For children it's 1 in 23,000.
Comment icon #20 Posted by Waspie_Dwarf on 25 October, 2013, 20:44
Comment icon #21 Posted by freetoroam on 25 October, 2013, 21:00
Comment icon #22 Posted by Waspie_Dwarf on 25 October, 2013, 21:42
The beauty of science is that it is not so arrogant as to presume it is always right. It constantly checks itself, refines itself and comes to new conclusions based on new data. That figure was correct at the time I quoted it. And by the way I notice you didn't highlight this part of what I said, which is a shame as it might have demonstrated an iota of comprehension on your part.
Comment icon #23 Posted by freetoroam on 25 October, 2013, 22:08
I did not highlight it because the question had already been asked you are the one who put the 100% bit down about the odds, they calculated it, but it was not 100% if it could change, ( hence the reason I questioned the "most likely" bit). as you pointed out, UNTIL they have precise measurements, they do not how can they be 100% certain when even you say the measurements are not precise?
Comment icon #24 Posted by aearluin on 26 October, 2013, 17:06
Yes, of course. However, I believe that the chance of being in a fatal car crash is not random. People who drive more safely will have a much lower chance of crashing that people who take more risks. So if you are carefull I thikn the chance of dying in a car crash would be much lower than de 1 in 63000 chance of the asteroid hitting us. No ?
Comment icon #25 Posted by Lilly on 26 October, 2013, 23:01
The thing is, if an asteroid does hit us (and they have hit us in the distant past) then it's going to be 'bad day' for far, far more people than any car crash ever caused. In other words, the stakes are much higher. That said, the impact odds will change the closer we get to 2032.
Comment icon #26 Posted by Vigilanis on 27 October, 2013, 11:55
Ah great the next domesday cult now has a target year, for some nut case like Harold Camping the evangelical broadcaster to form a group of hand wringing disciples around lol
Comment icon #27 Posted by Abramelin on 28 October, 2013, 1:25
So there is again a big chance we - and everything else - are going to be exterminated...again, or lots of us. I have survived so many 'possible exterminations' that I am getting tired of these messages. And if a big bad rock is heading our way, we can't do **** about it. Not now, that is.
Comment icon #28 Posted by vola on 28 October, 2013, 11:07
I wonder who wants this mass hysteria over nothing. Every day in news paper we can read new doom scenario. Boring.

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