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NASA downplays 2032 killer asteroid fears


Posted on Sunday, 20 October, 2013 | Comment icon 28 comments

There is less than a 1-in-63,000 chance of a collision. Image Credit: NASA/Don Davis
The asteroid known as 2013 TV135 was discovered by Ukranian astronomers earlier this month.
As word reached the media that a giant 1,300ft asteroid was hurtling towards us, headlines soon started to appear heralding the upcoming apocalypse with an estimated collision date of 2032 and the potential for the space rock to "blow apart" the Earth.

As tends to be the case with such discoveries however, the reality of the situation is that there is only a very slim chance indeed that 2013 TV135 will collide with our planet. The odds are currently less than 1-in-63,000 with the potential to drop a lot further as scientists determine more about the asteroid's trajectory.

"To put it another way, that puts the current probability of no impact in 2032 at about 99.998 percent," said NASA's Don Yeomans, manager of the Near-Earth Object Program Office. "With more observations, I fully expect we will be able to significantly reduce, or rule out entirely, any impact probability for the foreseeable future."

Source: IB Times | Comments (28)

Tags: Ukraine, Asteroid


 
Recent comments on this story
Comment icon #19 Posted by White Crane Feather on 25 October, 2013, 20:03
I think 1 in 63000 deserves some level of worry!!!!! I wouldn't definitely not drive a car with a 1:63000 chance of exploding under me! Are you sure about that. The chances of dieing in a fatal car crash are actually a lot less. For children it's 1 in 23,000.
Comment icon #20 Posted by Waspie_Dwarf on 25 October, 2013, 20:44
Impact Risk Hiked for 400-Meter-Wide Asteroid - NASA MOSCOW, October 24 (RIA Novosti) - NASA has upgraded the impact risk for a massive asteroid recently discovered by Ukrainian observers that will pass close to the Earth in 2032, although a collision remains unlikely.According to an update on NASA's Near Earth Object Program site, the impact risk is now 1 in 9,090; up from 1 in 63,000 at the time the asteroid, identified as 2013 TV135, was discovered. Read more...
Comment icon #21 Posted by freetoroam on 25 October, 2013, 21:00
I'm not sure what you mean by this. This is the same calculation done for EVERY NEO asteroid when they are detected. Guarantee what exactly? That there is a 1 in 63,000 chance that it will hit us? They are 100% certain of that. That it won't hit us? No they can't guarantee it, that is why they have given the odds of an impact. Can they guarantee that the odds will fall with more observations? Of course not, if they could they wouldn't need further observations. NOT ANY MORE!!!
Comment icon #22 Posted by Waspie_Dwarf on 25 October, 2013, 21:42
NOT ANY MORE!!! The beauty of science is that it is not so arrogant as to presume it is always right. It constantly checks itself, refines itself and comes to new conclusions based on new data. That figure was correct at the time I quoted it. And by the way I notice you didn't highlight this part of what I said, Can they guarantee that the odds will fall with more observations? Of course not, if they could they wouldn't need further observations. which is a shame as it might have demonstrated an iota of comprehension on your part.
Comment icon #23 Posted by freetoroam on 25 October, 2013, 22:08
The beauty of science is that it is not so arrogant as to presume it is always right. It constantly checks itself, refines itself and comes to new conclusions based on new data. That figure was correct at the time I quoted it. And by the way I notice you didn't highlight this part of what I said, which is a shame as it might have demonstrated an iota of comprehension on your part. I did not highlight it because the question had already been asked in relation to the story, Posted 21 October 2013 - 02:20 PM I like the positive attitude, can they guarantee this though? NOT if its a "most likely",... [More]
Comment icon #24 Posted by aearluin on 26 October, 2013, 17:06
Are you sure about that. The chances of dieing in a fatal car crash are actually a lot less. For children it's 1 in 23,000. Yes, of course. However, I believe that the chance of being in a fatal car crash is not random. People who drive more safely will have a much lower chance of crashing that people who take more risks. So if you are carefull I thikn the chance of dying in a car crash would be much lower than de 1 in 63000 chance of the asteroid hitting us. No ?
Comment icon #25 Posted by Lilly on 26 October, 2013, 23:01
The thing is, if an asteroid does hit us (and they have hit us in the distant past) then it's going to be 'bad day' for far, far more people than any car crash ever caused. In other words, the stakes are much higher. That said, the impact odds will change the closer we get to 2032.
Comment icon #26 Posted by Vigilanis on 27 October, 2013, 11:55
Ah great the next domesday cult now has a target year, for some nut case like Harold Camping the evangelical broadcaster to form a group of hand wringing disciples around lol
Comment icon #27 Posted by Abramelin on 28 October, 2013, 1:25
So there is again a big chance we - and everything else - are going to be exterminated...again, or lots of us. I have survived so many 'possible exterminations' that I am getting tired of these messages. And if a big bad rock is heading our way, we can't do **** about it. Not now, that is.
Comment icon #28 Posted by vola on 28 October, 2013, 11:07
I wonder who wants this mass hysteria over nothing. Every day in news paper we can read new doom scenario. Boring.


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