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Thylacine survival odds are 1 in 1.6 trillion

Posted on Wednesday, 19 April, 2017 | Comment icon 14 comments

The odds are not looking pretty. Image Credit: Benjamin A. Sheppard
A new study has cast further doubt on the possibility that the Tasmanian tiger has survived in the wild.
One of the best known recent examples of a species wiped out by human hunting practices, the thylacine was a distinctive carnivorous marsupial native to Australia, Tasmania and New Guinea.

The last known specimen held in captivity died at Hobart Zoo back in 1936 and while there have been fleeting sightings of the species since then, it has long been considered extinct.

Despite this however, hope still remains - especially given the number of people who claim to have seen live thylacines in recent years. The possibility that the species has survived in the wild has generated a great deal of interest all over the world and has captured the public's imagination.

Sadly though, a new study conducted by Colin Carlson at the University of California, Berkeley and colleagues may have finally put an end to such hopes once and for all.

By using a mathematical model, the researchers have calculated that the odds of the thylacine's survival are likely to be infinitesimally small and may even be as low as 1 in 1.6 trillion.

If this is indeed the case then it is highly likely that the Tasmanian tiger is truly gone for good.

Source: New Scientist | Comments (14)

Tags: Thylacine, Tasmanian Tiger

Recent comments on this story
Comment icon #5 Posted by Calibeliever on 19 April, 2017, 18:44
Comment icon #6 Posted by Stiff on 19 April, 2017, 20:51
You're missing the last three noughts but I agree. It wouldn't be one. 
Comment icon #7 Posted by oldrover on 19 April, 2017, 20:54
Yeah, I ran out. That's a lot of noughts. 
Comment icon #8 Posted by Mr.United_Nations on 19 April, 2017, 22:03
Imagine if a bet was placed on those odds
Comment icon #9 Posted by oldrover on 20 April, 2017, 0:09
Żeah, it'd be a very tiny win for the bookies. 
Comment icon #10 Posted by timewarrior on 20 April, 2017, 12:31
NOOOOOOOOOO!  Say it isn't so. . .we can rebuild them. . .make them faster, stronger, better. . .It's time to clone them. . .I want my army of mutant Tasmanian Tiger beasts.  
Comment icon #11 Posted by Future ghost on 21 April, 2017, 0:10
What awesome animals. I hope they're wrong.
Comment icon #12 Posted by Myles on 21 April, 2017, 19:15
I'm losing hope on these.    A few years ago I thought there might be a fighters chance that some of these are still surviving. Now I don't think so.   With everyone having cameras on them, trail cams and less inhabited space, each passing year is like 20 years was before.  
Comment icon #13 Posted by taniwha on 21 April, 2017, 20:05
They will not be found where they are not... I hope that advise helps to reduce the odds...   
Comment icon #14 Posted by oldrover on 21 April, 2017, 20:33
Me too, but not now. 

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