Space & Astronomy

New study offers update on odds of 'killer' asteroid Apophis striking Earth

By T.K. Randall
March 10, 2024

Image: AI-generated (Bing AI / Dall-E 3) Named ominously after the Egyptian god of chaos, Apophis measures 340 meters across and was first spotted by astronomers at the Kitt Peak National Observatory, Arizona in June 2004.

What made it particularly concerning at the time was the fact that it seemed to have a 2.7% chance of striking the Earth in 2029, making it the most dangerous space rock that we actually knew about.

Fortunately, later observations saw the odds of a collision reduced to 1 in 100,000.

It is now thought that Apophis will miss us by 37,399 kilometers when it passes on April 13, 2029.

There is still one point of concern, however - what if the asteroid happens to impact another, smaller, space rock on its way here and is sent flying in our direction ?In a new study, astronomer Paul Wiegert and collaborator Benjamin Hyatt sought to find out how likely it was that something like this could actually happen.

"Given how closely Apophis will pass Earth, there is a possible risk that a deflection from its current trajectory may move Apophis closer to impacting us," said Hyatt.

"Hypothetically, another asteroid colliding with Apophis could cause such a deflection, motivating us to study this scenario however unlikely it may be."

By computing the paths of 1.3 million known asteroids, they were eventually able to determine that there was no chance that this potentially killer space rock could be redirected at us in this way.

"We calculated the paths of all known asteroids using a detailed computer simulation of our solar system and the possibility of such an unlikely event was evaluated," said Weigert.

"Fortunately, no such collisions are anticipated."

Source: Phys.org

Tags: Asteroid, Apophis